7860 Luann St · Shields, MI 48609

$215,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1968 0.30 ac lot Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom Thomas Township home available! With a brand new roof, new flooring, new cabinets, new bathroom fixtures, and fresh paint throughout, this home just needs a few more finishing touches and it will be ready! The layout features both a living room and family room, a formal dining space, a large kitchen, 4 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, and a full basement. The yard is fully fenced with a large back deck. Located in a quiet neighborhood close to grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Call for your private showing today!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• Living room

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW BATHROOM FIXTURES
• FRESH PAINT
• LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: RAMBLING ACRES; Cross street near N Miller / Lisa
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Paved public road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Fireplace located in the family room; Crawl space basement; Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($623/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $169,680 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,334
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7860 Luann St	0.00mi	4/1.5	2,106 (+6%)	5mo	$195,000	$93	87
7830 Bonny Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,080 (+4%)	2mo	$230,000	$111	74
682 Cheryl St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-11%)	3mo	$248,000	$139	66
7782 Luann St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,719 (-14%)	9mo	$220,000	$128	61
365 S Miller Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,963 (-2%)	12mo	$162,000	$83	61
7911 Bonny Dr	0.28mi	4/1.5	1,740 (-13%)	8mo	$220,000	$126	59
7794 Geddes Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,962 (-2%)	10mo	$217,500	$111	53
7663 Sybil St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,215 (+11%)	20mo	$250,000	$113	50
130 Lutzke Rd	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,890 (-5%)	13mo	$80,000	$42	49
580 Gillette Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (+2%)	20mo	$208,000	$102	43
7550 Laurie Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,262 (+13%)	21mo	$279,900	$124	34
8243 Geddes Rd	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,211 (+11%)	20mo	$237,900	$108	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,626
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-23,667
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $113	+0% $52	+5% $-9	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-15	+0% $52	+5% $119	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $107	base $52	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $215,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   remarks 563-char remark
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-27
   listed $215,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   4 bedroom Thomas Township home available! With a brand new roof, new flooring, new cabinets, new bathroom fixtures, and fresh paint throughout, this home just needs a few more finishing touches and it will be ready! The layout features both a living room and family room, a formal dining space, a large kitchen, 4 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, and a full basement. The yard is fully fenced with a large back deck. Located in a quiet neighborhood close to grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Call for your private showing today!

8. 2026-05-27
   listed $215,000 Active 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   4 bedroom Thomas Township home available! With a brand new roof, new flooring, new cabinets, new bathroom fixtures, and fresh paint throughout, this home just needs a few more finishing touches and it will be ready! The layout features both a living room and family room, a formal dining space, a large kitchen, 4 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, and a full basement. The yard is fully fenced with a large back deck. Located in a quiet neighborhood close to grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Call for your private showing today!

9. 2026-02-06
   soldstatus $195,000
10. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

11. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

12. 2026-01-02
    status Pending 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

13. 2026-01-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

14. 2025-11-17
    listed $215,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

15. 2025-11-17
    listed $215,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    This great Thomas Township home offers 4 bedrooms with hardwood floors, formal living room and dining room with hardwood floors, family room features a wood burning fireplace & cathedral beamed ceiling. Two car attached garage with extra storage. Partially finished basement with a rec room. Fenced in yard that backs up to woods and a large deck. All appliances including washer & dryer remain. Occupancy at close.

16. 2016-08-26
    soldstatus $130,000
17. 2016-08-17
    soldstatus $130,000
18. 2016-08-17
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed
19. 2016-06-15
    status Pending
20. 2016-06-02
    listed $139,900 Active
21. 2016-06-01
    listed $139,900
22. 2010-08-13
    soldstatus $100,000
23. 2010-08-06
    soldstatus $100,000
24. 2010-08-06
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2010-06-29
    historical
26. 2010-02-12
    listed $129,900
27. 2010-02-12
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,227/yr (+$102/mo · 143.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+65.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-27 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-02 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-02 Sold (MLS) $195,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-06-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-02 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-01 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-06 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-06 Sold (MLS) $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-06-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-02-12 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-02-12 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · -73.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.