1813 Enslen Ave · Modesto, CA 95350

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1957 5,519 sqft lot Est $392k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MAJOR FIXER, INVESTOR/CONTRACTOR/FLIPPER SPECIAL. CASH OFFERS ONLY. It looks cute from the street, but just wait--pictures don't convey the potent smell of animal urine throughout property! Buyer is STRONGLY ADVISED to consult with professionals who can determine extent of repairs needed. Located in a great neighborhood of well-cared for homes on famous Enslen Avenue in the heart of Modesto!

Key facts

• 5,519 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Public water / water district; Irrigation from public district; Electric service: other
• Home design: Single family residential tract home; Built in 1957
• Construction: Composition/bitumen roof
• Exterior features: Front landscaping; Shed(s) on property; No private pool or spa; Horses not allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Additional flooring details in remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub in bath(s)
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks; Cooling details: see remarks
• Interior features: One-story layout; Living room fireplace; Dual-pane full windows; Tile countertops in kitchen; Dining space in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Modesto City Elementary (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #462 of 517 in CA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $392,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1813 Enslen Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	1mo	$306,000	$268	99
1241 Marilyn St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,141 (+0%)	1mo	$352,500	$309	65
2205 Tully Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+1%)	1mo	$389,000	$337	65
2126 Monticello Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,096 (-4%)	5mo	$373,000	$340	59
820 Hawthorne Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-13%)	2mo	$355,000	$359	59
1905 La Cienega Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,118 (-2%)	3mo	$410,000	$367	57
1628 Honeysuckle Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+2%)	2mo	$400,000	$344	56
1615 College Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+14%)	1mo	$460,000	$354	56
208 Tokay Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+11%)	1mo	$435,000	$344	54
501 Bermuda Way	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-12%)	1mo	$360,000	$360	54
161 Ribier Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+11%)	4mo	$428,700	$339	53
1713 Albany Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (+8%)	1mo	$425,000	$344	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,254
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $19,512
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95350

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $461	+0% $404	+5% $348	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $325	+0% $404	+5% $484	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $455	base $404	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Bowen Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,750	$1.86	15d	1	0.38mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	15d	1	0.63mi
235 E Coolidge Ave Unit Main Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1320	$2,099	$1.59	15d	1	0.73mi
150 E Orangeburg Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$1,495	$2.35	15d	3	0.73mi
1402 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	15d	1	0.75mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	24d	1	0.82mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	22d	1	0.82mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	15d	10	0.82mi
1701 Linwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,050	$1.37	15d	1	0.86mi
1229 W Roseburg Ave Apt 7 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	896	$1,750	$1.95	15d	1	0.88mi
1506 W Orangeburg Ave Unit 1506 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,600	$2.05	15d	1	1.02mi
1251 Sunrise Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	15d	1	1.08mi
1712 Carver Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	704	$1,825	$2.59	15d	4	1.12mi
427 Corson Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	22d	1	1.16mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	15d	2	1.31mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	15d	10	1.32mi
508 College Ave Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,395	$1.71	15d	1	1.38mi
2005 Coffee Rd Unit 2005 Coffee Road, Modesto, Calif Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	15d	1	1.39mi
1712 Applegate Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,595	$2.32	15d	1	1.40mi
2100 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$2,100	$2.36	15d	10	1.43mi
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	15d	4	1.44mi
1713 Randazzo Ave Unit 1713 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	15d	1	1.45mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	15d	1	1.48mi
1808 W Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	15d	1	1.50mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$861/yr (+$72/mo · 130.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$390
• After-tax cash flow: $4,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Modesto City Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,725
• Composite: 17.31/100
• National rank: #9083
• State rank: #462 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,136
• Household income: $75,621
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2163.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.05%
• Current HPI: 307.9532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.