12 Lace Bark Ln · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition $128/sqft · at area comps Est $119k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your opportunity to call this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath, well maintained mobile home your new home. This home is situated on a dead end street in the welcoming community of Land O Pines in Jackson Township. Upon entering the home you are greeted with the livingroom/eat-in kitchen area. As you proceed down the hallway, you will find the 2nd bedroom with a large closet, the bathroom with deep tub and a stand up shower and the laundry area. The main bedroom sits at the far end with a large closet that has two doors for easier access to your belongings. Note: Land O Pines has a strict (2) person max occupancy limit per park rules

Key facts

• Large closet
• Deep tub
• Laundry area

Tags

• DEAD END STREET
• LIVINGROOM EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE CLOSET
• DEEP TUB
• STAND UP SHOWER
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.78%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,720
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -3.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.00mi	2/1.0	970 (+8%)	7mo	$115,000	$119	81
41 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	14mo	$55,000	$56	70
24 Lace Bark Ln	0.01mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	14mo	$117,500	$147	69
6 Lace Bark Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (-11%)	23mo	$149,900	$187	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $55,358
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $123,738
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $1,282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-01-30
    listed $115,000 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Don't miss your opportunity to call this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath, well maintained mobile home your new home. This home is situated on a dead end street in the welcoming community of Land O Pines in Jackson Township. Upon entering the home you are greeted with the livingroom/eat-in kitchen area. As you proceed down the hallway, you will find the 2nd bedroom with a large closet, the bathroom with deep tub and a stand up shower and the laundry area. The main bedroom sits at the far end with a large closet that has two doors for easier access to your belongings. Note: Land O Pines has a strict (2) person max occupancy limit per park rules

16. 2026-01-28
    listed $115,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! Don't miss your opportunity to call this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath, well maintained mobile home your new home. This home is situated on a dead end street in the welcoming community of Land O Pines in Jackson Township. Upon entering the home you are greeted with the livingroom/eat-in kitchen area. As you proceed down the hallway, you will find the 2nd bedroom with a large closet, the bathroom with deep tub and a stand up shower and the laundry area. The main bedroom sits at the far end with a large closet that has two doors for easier access to your belongings. Note: Land O Pines has a strict (2) person max occupancy limit per park rules

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $14,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,459
• After-tax cash flow: $11,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major wooden deck — rotting and unstable
• Major exterior siding — gray siding appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeted flooring — improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both repair wooden deck — restores functionality and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
wooden deck · rotting and unstable	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · gray siding appears worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeted flooring — improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both repair wooden deck — restores functionality and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $115,000 MOMLS