Is 18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 44 Lot 44 in Valley Center, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C+ with a 22.6% cap rate and $1,346/mo modeled cash flow at a $99,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 44 Lot 44?

The modeled cap rate is 22.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,570/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 44 Lot 44

C+ Composite 60.26

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +22.5/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +7.5/10.0
DSCR +7.5/10.0
Schools +3.2/10.0
Livability +2.6/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

$99,000

18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 44 Lot 44 · Valley Center, CA 92082

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1975 Fair condition 6,230 sqft lot $72/sqft · 41% below area Est $169k · 41% under ↓ 23% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits on the golf course. 1975 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1368 esf. Priced for only $99,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with a view of the golfers plus lovely trees and bushes for privacy on your deck. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This is a cute Split-level home. A nice gas fireplace sits in the den/dining area for enjoyable fireplace atmosphere. The primary bedroom has a glass slider opening to the front deck.

Key facts

Gated community
Dog park
Front deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Valley Center Primary (526 students, 48% FRL); Valley Center Middle (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 756 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,181 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.60% ✓
Cap rate: 22.61%
Cash-on-cash: 58.27%
DSCR: 3.59
GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $169,000
List price: $99,000
Delta: -41.42%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 121 Lot 121	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+2%)	2mo	$80,000	$57	89
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 176 Lot 176	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	3mo	$155,000	$108	83
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	17mo	$140,000	$97	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-4%)	13mo	$255,000	$195	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	7mo	$205,000	$164	74
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	18mo	$165,000	$115	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	17mo	$89,500	$62	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #129	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	3mo	$60,000	$39	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	12mo	$267,500	$174	69
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+12%)	14mo	$115,000	$75	68
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+12%)	15mo	$149,000	$97	57
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	16mo	$100,000	$64	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 56.9%
Equity multiple: 3.52×
Total profit: $69,724
Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

IRR: 61.8%
Equity multiple: 7.18×
Total profit: $171,260
Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 20 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $178,000 ($127/sqft)
Median days on market: 197 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92082

Active inventory: 243
Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,570 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$519
Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
Insurance: −$41
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
Net cashflow: $1,346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,414	-5% $1,380	+0% $1,346	+5% $1,312	+10% $1,278
Rent	-10% $1,143	-5% $1,244	+0% $1,346	+5% $1,448	+10% $1,549
Rate	-1.0pp $1,396	-0.5pp $1,371	base $1,346	+0.5pp $1,320	+1.0pp $1,294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $24,750
Closing costs: $2,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19286 Paradise Mountain Rd Valley Center, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,995	$2.35	0d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Land lease applies (approximately $1,600 monthly)
HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity features include golf course, dog park, lake, and street lightingManager approval required for tenancyPets allowed with size, breed and number limits

Exterior

Parking: Concrete drivewayCarport (2 spaces)Total of 2 parking spacesPark within Skyline Ranch Country Club
Security: Gated communityResident managerCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector
Utilities: Private sewerPropaneElectricity connected
Home design: Manufactured houseSingle-storyEntry up front steps to the front doorMobile home remainsHas a view
Construction: Composition roofMasonite and shingle exterior materialsMasonite skirtingPier jacks foundationOne storyMobile dimensions approximately 24' x 57'
Exterior features: Covered front porchDeckAwningRain guttersShedLandscaped yardLocated on a golf courseCul-de-sac lotCommunity pool (in-ground, filtered, saltwater)

Interior

Kitchen: RefrigeratorPropane stoveKitchen open to family room
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
Flooring: VinylCarpetWood
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsShower in tubSeparate shower
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
Interior features: Beamed ceilingsWood product wallsUnfurnishedOpen floor planMulti/split levelsCarbon monoxide and smoke detectorsResident managerGated communityIn-ground heated spa
Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasher includedIndividual laundry room

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $99,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $99,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $99,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,838
− Mortgage interest: −$5,546
− Property taxes: −$1,485
− Insurance: −$495
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
− Management: −$2,467
− Depreciation: −$2,880
Taxable income: $15,498

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,720
After-tax cash flow: $12,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $34,200–$61,560 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its interior, but has a good roof and exterior. It has a good location and is in a senior park with amenities. Updates to the interior will significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry
Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures
Minor Flooring — Carpeted floors

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Valley Center Primary Middle Valley Center Middle F CA #408/498 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Valley Center High F CA #472/1,170 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
NCES district ID: 0600069
Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $74,438
Composite: 24.32/100
National rank: #7705
State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Valley Center

Score: 52/100
State rank: #1017
US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
City population: 21,727
Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
Population (ZIP): 21,727
Household income: $126,544
Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
Current HPI: 294.6017
Rent YoY: —
Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-08-07 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
2026-05-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
2026-04-22 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
2026-01-19 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
2025-07-15 Listed $129,000 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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