18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 44 Lot 44 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1975 Fair condition 6,230 sqft lot $72/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.6

Listing remarks

GREAT LOCATION - Close to the clubhouse and sits on the golf course. 1975 2 Bed, 2 bath, at 1368 esf. Priced for only $99,000!!! This is a nice, manufactured home in a Senior Park 55/45 with a view of the golfers plus lovely trees and bushes for privacy on your deck. Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. Currently offering FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community, dog park, and much more. This is a cute Split-level home. A nice gas fireplace sits in the den/dining area for enjoyable fireplace atmosphere. The primary bedroom has a glass slider opening to the front deck.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Front deck

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GLASS SLIDER
• FRONT DECK
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Center Primary (526 students, 48% FRL); Valley Center Middle (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 756 students, 41% FRL); Valley Center High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 1,181 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.16%
• DSCR: 3.63
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -51.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 121 Lot 121	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+2%)	1mo	$80,000	$57	90
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 176 Lot 176	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	1mo	$155,000	$108	84
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	16mo	$140,000	$97	78
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-4%)	12mo	$255,000	$195	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	6mo	$205,000	$164	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	17mo	$165,000	$115	73
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	16mo	$89,500	$62	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #129	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	2mo	$60,000	$39	72
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	11mo	$267,500	$174	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+12%)	13mo	$115,000	$75	70
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+12%)	13mo	$149,000	$97	58
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	15mo	$100,000	$64	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $71,030
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $174,081
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,000 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 151 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +21.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $1,367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,435	-5% $1,401	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,332	+10% $1,298
Rent	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,264	+0% $1,367	+5% $1,469	+10% $1,572
Rate	-1.0pp $1,416	-0.5pp $1,392	base $1,367	+0.5pp $1,341	+1.0pp $1,315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19286 Paradise Mountain Rd Valley Center, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,145	$2.44	0d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease applies (approximately $1,600 monthly)
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity features include golf course, dog park, lake, and street lightingManager approval required for tenancyPets allowed with size, breed and number limits

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete drivewayCarport (2 spaces)Total of 2 parking spacesPark within Skyline Ranch Country Club
• Security: Gated communityResident managerCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector
• Utilities: Private sewerPropaneElectricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured houseSingle-storyEntry up front steps to the front doorMobile home remainsHas a view
• Construction: Composition roofMasonite and shingle exterior materialsMasonite skirtingPier jacks foundationOne storyMobile dimensions approximately 24' x 57'
• Exterior features: Covered front porchDeckAwningRain guttersShedLandscaped yardLocated on a golf courseCul-de-sac lotCommunity pool (in-ground, filtered, saltwater)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorPropane stoveKitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: VinylCarpetWood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsShower in tubSeparate shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilingsWood product wallsUnfurnishedOpen floor planMulti/split levelsCarbon monoxide and smoke detectorsResident managerGated communityIn-ground heated spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasher includedIndividual laundry room

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $99,000 Active 1 DOM
40. 2026-05-12
    status Pending Sale 1083-char remark
41. 2026-04-22
    price $79,000 1083-char remark
42. 2026-01-19
    price $99,000 1083-char remark
43. 2025-07-15
    listed $129,000 Active 1083-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,492
• − Management: −$2,492
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $15,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,782
• After-tax cash flow: $12,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $34,200–$61,560 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its interior, but has a good roof and exterior. It has a good location and is in a senior park with amenities. Updates to the interior will significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures
• Minor Flooring — Carpeted floors

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Valley Center Primary Middle Valley Center Middle F CA #408/498 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Valley Center High F CA #472/1,170 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease applies (approximately $1,600 monthly)
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity features include golf course, dog park, lake, and street lightingManager approval required for tenancyPets allowed with size, breed and number limits

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete drivewayCarport (2 spaces)Total of 2 parking spacesPark within Skyline Ranch Country Club
• Security: Gated communityResident managerCarbon monoxide detector(s)Smoke detector
• Utilities: Private sewerPropaneElectricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured houseSingle-storyEntry up front steps to the front doorMobile home remainsHas a view
• Construction: Composition roofMasonite and shingle exterior materialsMasonite skirtingPier jacks foundationOne storyMobile dimensions approximately 24' x 57'
• Exterior features: Covered front porchDeckAwningRain guttersShedLandscaped yardLocated on a golf courseCul-de-sac lotCommunity pool (in-ground, filtered, saltwater)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorPropane stoveKitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: VinylCarpetWood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsShower in tubSeparate shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilingsWood product wallsUnfurnishedOpen floor planMulti/split levelsCarbon monoxide and smoke detectorsResident managerGated communityIn-ground heated spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasher includedIndividual laundry room

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-07 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $129,000 CRMLS