16 Medler Court Ct NE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$295,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,011 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,840 sqft lot $147/sqft · 6% above area Est $279k · 6% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Gwinnett 2 in Paxton Hill! Perfectly located near local schools & Fort Stewart, this new-construction home offers the ideal blend of comfort & convenience. Step inside to an inviting open-concept main floor featuring a spacious family room, a dedicated dining room & a kitchen overlooking the fenced backyard. The kitchen shines with two-tone cabinetry, granite counters, a large island & a generous pantry—perfect for everyday living & entertaining alike. Upstairs, you'll find four bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a conveniently located laundry room. The primary suite is a true retreat, showcasing a vaulted ceiling, a luxurious bath with dual gra

Key facts

• Generous pantry
• Large island
• Two-tone cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO-TONE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LARGE ISLAND
• GENEROUS PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Paxton Hill
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $360 (about $30/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Under construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding, wood siding, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction (under construction)
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Level lot; Paved road frontage on a city street; Irrigation equipment; Insulation (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Double-pane windows; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,535 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,528
• List price: $295,200
• Delta: 5.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-0%)	4mo	$299,775	$150	65
665 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,926 (-4%)	1mo	$320,910	$167	63
535 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,065 (+3%)	4mo	$288,625	$140	62
590 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,151 (+7%)	2mo	$298,475	$139	55
591 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-10%)	3mo	$281,850	$156	50
627 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,810 (-10%)	2mo	$282,750	$156	50
385 Carson St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	49
522 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+12%)	3mo	$315,350	$140	46
15 Loganberry Ln NE	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,236 (+11%)	4mo	$298,800	$134	42
609 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+12%)	2mo	$310,875	$138	39
506 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+12%)	3mo	$309,250	$137	39
564 Doctor's Creek Rd NE	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+12%)	3mo	$308,750	$137	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-429
• Equity at exit: $103,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $47,443
• Equity at exit: $139,077

Cash invested: $82,656 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,548
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,428/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,620

Max offer price $276,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $-28	+0% $-130	+5% $-232	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-227	+0% $-130	+5% $-33	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-55	base $-130	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,800
• Closing costs: $8,856
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	45d	1	0.88mi
59 Forest St NE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	45d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,200 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,200 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,200 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,200 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,200 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,200 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,200 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,200 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,200 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,200 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,200 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,200 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,200 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,200 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,200 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,200 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,200 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,200 Active 29 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    listed $295,200 Active 920-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,536
• − Property taxes: −$4,428
• − Insurance: −$1,476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,588
• Taxable loss: −$6,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new-construction home is in excellent condition with no repairs or maintenance needed. It is ready for immediate occupancy and will appeal to both buyers and renters due to its move-in-ready status and location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Install kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — Completes the kitchen and enhances functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Install bathroom fixtures and finishes — Completes the bathrooms and enhances functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Install exterior siding, shutters, and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and completes the exterior.
• Both Install flooring — Enhances functionality and aesthetics of the interior.
• Both Finish interior walls and paint — Enhances functionality and aesthetics of the interior.
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensures comfort and functionality of the home.
• Both Complete landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and completes the exterior.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Install kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — Completes the kitchen and enhances functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install bathroom fixtures and finishes — Completes the bathrooms and enhances functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install exterior siding, shutters, and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and completes the exterior. ↑
• Both Install flooring — Enhances functionality and aesthetics of the interior. ↑
• Both Finish interior walls and paint — Enhances functionality and aesthetics of the interior. ↑
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensures comfort and functionality of the home. ↑
• Both Complete landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and completes the exterior. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $295,200 HABR