173 Grace St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1900 4,440 sqft lot Est $148k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell!!! This single family home sits on a good size lot on a quiet dead end street. Great opportunity for owner occupy or investment with a little elbow grease. Newer heating system.

Key facts

• Shopping plazas
• New porch
• Private yard

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• NEW PORCH
• UPDATED MECHANICS
• PROXIMITY TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• SHOPPING PLAZAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $80k implies a 700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.12%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,230
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 Farmer St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+0%)	6mo	$35,000	$32	77
195 Hertel Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (+13%)	2mo	$110,000	$89	70
133 Mayer Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (+3%)	6mo	$195,000	$172	67
298 Dearborn St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,053 (-4%)	6mo	$50,000	$47	65
56 Gallatin Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,052 (-4%)	2mo	$178,000	$169	65
42 Progressive Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (-7%)	6mo	$68,000	$67	63
149 Howell St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,097 (-0%)	7mo	$155,000	$141	55
63 Briggs Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	974 (-11%)	1mo	$180,000	$185	50
88 Progressive Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (+14%)	6mo	$170,000	$135	46
144 Dearborn St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,209 (+10%)	3mo	$161,000	$133	41
82 Bush St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (-7%)	8mo	$70,000	$68	41
268 Riverside Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-15%)	5mo	$150,000	$160	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $27,133
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $97,035
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $547	+0% $525	+5% $502	+10% $480
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $475	+0% $525	+5% $575	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $545	base $525	+0.5pp $504	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Thompson St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	5d	1	0.28mi
336 East St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	795	$1,000	$1.26	16d	1	0.31mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	22d	1	0.31mi
356 Hertel Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,300	$2.88	4d	1	0.32mi
2099 Niagara St Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,197	$1.20	45d	1	0.33mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.38mi
155 Germain St Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	12d	1	0.54mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	45d	1	0.60mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	5d	1	0.65mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	25d	1	0.66mi
68 Peter St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	25d	1	0.68mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.72mi
37 Holmes St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	16d	1	0.76mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	16d	1	0.90mi
134 Philadelphia St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	871	$1,100	$1.26	4d	1	0.93mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	3d	1	1.01mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$640	$0.49	3d	14	1.10mi
1558 Elmwood Ave Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	45d	1	1.12mi
46 Hawley St #1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	1.13mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	25d	1	1.18mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	25d	1	1.21mi
1485 Niagara St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	925	$2,174	$2.35	3d	1	1.33mi
2075 Kenmore Ave Unit 611 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	981	$1,950	$1.99	3d	1	1.33mi
57 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	1.41mi
305 Bird Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,300	$2.04	45d	1	1.41mi
309 Bird Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	1.41mi
185 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	25d	1	1.44mi
37 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	45d	1	1.44mi
232 Dewitt St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	25d	1	1.45mi
374 Baynes St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,550	$1.38	45d	1	1.47mi
891 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-28
   price $80,000
3. 2025-08-27
   listed $85,000 Active
4. 2025-06-11
   historical
5. 2024-12-11
   listed $79,900 Active
6. 2010-11-05
   soldstatus $10,000 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   Priced to sell!!! This single family home sits on a good size lot on a quiet dead end street. Great opportunity for owner occupy or investment with a little elbow grease. Newer heating system.

7. 2010-08-18
   listed $12,900 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   Priced to sell!!! This single family home sits on a good size lot on a quiet dead end street. Great opportunity for owner occupy or investment with a little elbow grease. Newer heating system.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 191.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $5,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+520.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2010-11-05 Sold (MLS) $10,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-08-18 Listed $12,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.