2409 Wilkins St · Saginaw, MI 48601

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1909 7,405 sqft lot Est $31k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This charming, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1- bath residence offers 1,012 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, perfect for the first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. The home has been thoughtfully maintained. Inside you'll find a bright and inviting layout ready for your personal touch. Plus the property includes a 2-car detached garage. Call for your private showing today.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1909

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the WOODRUFFS subdivision; Cross streets: Cambrey & Morris
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; 1,012 square feet above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.17 acres; Lot dimensions about 63.00 x 121.49

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 8.2% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.88%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $31,372
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2409 Wilkins St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,012 (0%)	1mo	$23,000	$23	99
1015 Cambrey St	0.11mi	2/1.0	959 (-5%)	12mo	$40,000	$42	76
2300 Thatcher St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (+5%)	10mo	$57,000	$54	70
1222 Hiland St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+8%)	12mo	$34,100	$31	66
2221 Owen St	0.42mi	2/2.0	962 (-5%)	10mo	$12,500	$13	60
500 Webber St	0.29mi	2/1.0	924 (-9%)	15mo	$32,000	$35	60
3034 Russell St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	976 (-4%)	17mo	$23,001	$24	49
2201 Parkwood Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (+3%)	14mo	$60,000	$58	48
1928 Parkwood Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,105 (+9%)	5mo	$31,100	$28	46
3315 S Washington Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	927 (-8%)	8mo	$63,500	$69	45
2117 Lowell Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	908 (-10%)	18mo	$23,500	$26	38
3212 Lowell Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	864 (-15%)	10mo	$13,000	$15	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $20,898
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $51,416
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $707/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $412	+0% $404	+5% $395	+10% $387
Rent	-10% $341	-5% $372	+0% $404	+5% $435	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $411	base $404	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Parkside Ct Saginaw, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	808	$800	$0.99	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1- bath residence offers 1,012 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, perfect for the first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. The home has been thoughtfully maintained. Inside you'll find a bright and inviting layout ready for your personal touch. Plus the property includes a 2-car detached garage. Call for your private showing today.

2. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1- bath residence offers 1,012 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, perfect for the first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. The home has been thoughtfully maintained. Inside you'll find a bright and inviting layout ready for your personal touch. Plus the property includes a 2-car detached garage. Call for your private showing today.

3. 2026-05-06
   listed $29,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1- bath residence offers 1,012 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, perfect for the first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. The home has been thoughtfully maintained. Inside you'll find a bright and inviting layout ready for your personal touch. Plus the property includes a 2-car detached garage. Call for your private showing today.

4. 2026-05-06
   listed $29,900 Active 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1- bath residence offers 1,012 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, perfect for the first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. The home has been thoughtfully maintained. Inside you'll find a bright and inviting layout ready for your personal touch. Plus the property includes a 2-car detached garage. Call for your private showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $707 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $707 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$707
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $4,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $3,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $707 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.