31 Tranquility Trails Way · Willis, TX 77318

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 298 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition $100/sqft · 26% above area Est $105k · 38% over ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today! * * This is a pre-owned home * *

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 297 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,950
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: 38.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,994
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $23,044
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $540	+0% $499	+5% $458	+10% $417
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $428	+0% $499	+5% $570	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $536	base $499	+0.5pp $461	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	45d	1	0.60mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	45d	1	0.60mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.61mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.71mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.72mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	1.42mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.45mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 277 DOM
15. 2025-12-04
    status Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today! * * This is a pre-owned home * *

16. 2025-12-04
    price $144,900 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today! * * This is a pre-owned home * *

17. 2024-04-19
    historical 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today! * * This is a pre-owned home * *

18. 2024-01-11
    listed $184,900 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe is an active community where you can truly have it all. This spacious 1332 SQ. FT 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home provides the perfect balance of indoor and outdoor living. The open concept living area opens onto a covered front porch, creating an ideal space for entertaining and relaxing. Come tour today! * * Photos are for representation purposes only. Actual property may differ in featured amenities, finishes, and in appearance from the model photos shown. Buy or lease today! * * This is a pre-owned home * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,416/yr (+$118/mo · 114.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $3,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$925
• After-tax cash flow: $5,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home in Rockrose Ranch at Lake Conroe offers a spacious and well-maintained living environment with modern finishes and a desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $144,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-01-11 Listed $184,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.