380 N Cave Springs Rd · Hardinsburg, KY 40152

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2006 7,840 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,456 livable sq ft home in McDaniels! Carpet and laminate flooring throughout. New kitchen counters. Recently painted cabinets, plus backsplash was added. On the backside of the home is a massive deck that is about a nice as they come. Enjoy the peace and quiet while you read your favorite book or invite your friends over for a cookout. Also included is a 36x20 2 car garage! Home is on city water and has a septic system. Located just minutes from North Fork Bridge/Rough River. and 10 mins from Hardinsburg. Call the listing agent today to schedule your appointment.

Key facts

• Huge covered deck
• Dual driveways
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• HUGE COVERED DECK
• 36X20 DETACHED GARAGE
• DUAL DRIVEWAYS
• MINUTES FROM ROUGH RIVER
• MINUTES TO AXTEL BOAT RAMP
• MINUTES TO LAUREL BRANCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rental allowed
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Cave Springs; No association fee reported

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential ranch; One story; Built in 2006
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space and concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining room on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, including a primary bathroom on the first floor
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Four closets; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.4% in Hardinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#250 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ben Johnson Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 229 students, 42% FRL); Breckinridge County Middle School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade D-, #47 of 217 statewide, top 22%, 553 students, 35% FRL); Breckinridge County High School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #178 of 254 statewide, top 70%, 925 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $84,067 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,026
• Equity at exit: $78,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $49,306
• Equity at exit: $130,347

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40152

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,243/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $99,021

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-246	+0% $-289	+5% $-331	+10% $-373
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-322	+0% $-289	+5% $-255	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-250	base $-289	+0.5pp $-327	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2025-11-12
    price $150,000
21. 2025-10-21
    price $159,000
22. 2025-08-27
    price $165,000
23. 2023-10-25
    soldstatus $130,000
24. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Check out this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,456 livable sq ft home in McDaniels! Carpet and laminate flooring throughout. New kitchen counters. Recently painted cabinets, plus backsplash was added. On the backside of the home is a massive deck that is about a nice as they come. Enjoy the peace and quiet while you read your favorite book or invite your friends over for a cookout. Also included is a 36x20 2 car garage! Home is on city water and has a septic system. Located just minutes from North Fork Bridge/Rough River. and 10 mins from Hardinsburg. Call the listing agent today to schedule your appointment.

25. 2023-09-07
    status Pending 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Check out this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,456 livable sq ft home in McDaniels! Carpet and laminate flooring throughout. New kitchen counters. Recently painted cabinets, plus backsplash was added. On the backside of the home is a massive deck that is about a nice as they come. Enjoy the peace and quiet while you read your favorite book or invite your friends over for a cookout. Also included is a 36x20 2 car garage! Home is on city water and has a septic system. Located just minutes from North Fork Bridge/Rough River. and 10 mins from Hardinsburg. Call the listing agent today to schedule your appointment.

26. 2023-08-25
    listed $135,000 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Check out this 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,456 livable sq ft home in McDaniels! Carpet and laminate flooring throughout. New kitchen counters. Recently painted cabinets, plus backsplash was added. On the backside of the home is a massive deck that is about a nice as they come. Enjoy the peace and quiet while you read your favorite book or invite your friends over for a cookout. Also included is a 36x20 2 car garage! Home is on city water and has a septic system. Located just minutes from North Fork Bridge/Rough River. and 10 mins from Hardinsburg. Call the listing agent today to schedule your appointment.

27. 2022-06-09
    historical
28. 2022-02-08
    listed $125,000
29. 2020-02-11
    historical
30. 2020-01-23
    listed $69,900
31. 2010-12-06
    soldstatus $25,000
32. 2010-09-17
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,243
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$6,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardinsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #12568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Danish 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Current HPI: 246.6101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+234.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $159,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-20 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-02-08 Listed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-11 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-01-23 Listed $69,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-12-06 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-09-17 Listed $44,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,243 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.