21632 Windham Run · Estero, FL 33928

$499,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2001 5,998 sqft lot Est $709k · 29% under · waterfront $235/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell! This lakefront pool home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a 3-car garage with plenty of space for the whole family. The first floor features tile flooring throughout and a spacious layout with the living and dining rooms located on the left side of the home, while the kitchen overlooks the large family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, Corian countertops, a breakfast bar, and a separate breakfast nook, offering plenty of space for casual dining. Upstairs, you'll find a flex area at the top of the stairs perfect for a desk, study space, or sitting area. The second floor also includes t

Key facts

• Corian countertops
• Flex area
• Tile flooring

Tags

• LAKEFRONT POOL HOME
• TILE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CORIAN COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FLEX AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing; Zoning RPD; Deeded restrictions; Lot is regular and recorded by property appraiser office
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Quarterly master HOA fee (approx. $706); Total annual recurring HOA fees approx. $2,824; One-time fees approx. $2,572; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi access, legal/accounting, manager, and recreation facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, basketball, bocce, volleyball, bike/jog paths, fishing pier, library, play area, sidewalks, streetlights, underground utilities and more; Gated community with public golf access

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking with 2+ spaces; Attached 3-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story, traditional design; Rear exposure faces west; Residential property in Stoneybrook community
• Construction: Built in 2001; Concrete block and wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Screened below-ground concrete pool with equipment that stays; Shutters (manual); Single-hung and sliding windows; Stucco exterior; Lakefront view and landscaped water views; Reclaimed irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker; Self-cleaning oven; Disposal; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom upstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Breakfast bar; Breakfast room; Dining/living area; Eat-in kitchen; Guest bath; Guest room; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch; Auto garage door; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/ice maker; Self-cleaning oven; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $495k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $428k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $428k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,280/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,018 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $708,674
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11451 Pembrook Run	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,528 (+5%)	1mo	$550,000	$218	63
21661 Windham Run	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,704 (+12%)	23mo	$570,000	$211	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-95,275
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-133,561
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,280 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,130/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$899
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,315

Max offer price $495,011

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $114	+0% $-28	+5% $-169	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-197	+0% $-28	+5% $141	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $99	base $-28	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21565 Windham Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$3,000	$1.54	25d	1	0.18mi
11533 Woodmount Ln Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2664	$6,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.41mi
21489 Sheridan Run Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$10,000	$6.08	25d	1	0.43mi
21301 S Branch Blvd Estero, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1510	$4,670	$3.09	3d	12	0.61mi
9923 Springlake Cir Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2541	$3,350	$1.32	25d	1	1.00mi
10257 South Silver Palm Dr Estero, FL	5.0	3.0	2918	$3,500	$1.20	25d	1	1.04mi
20240 Burnside Pl #1603 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1656	$5,995	$3.62	25d	1	1.08mi
20271 Calice Ct #2304 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$10,500	$5.23	25d	1	1.09mi
21790 Sunset Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2758	$3,200	$1.16	16d	1	1.21mi
20187 Buttermere Ct Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2490	$10,995	$4.42	25d	1	1.21mi
10140 North Golden Elm Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.22mi
20230 Estero Gardens Cir #206 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	25d	1	1.29mi
20150 Seagrove St #2701 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,895	$1.56	17d	1	1.35mi
10101 Villagio Palms Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1732	$2,550	$1.47	5d	2	1.38mi
21670 Red Latan Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2041	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	1.38mi
20112 Saraceno Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2107	$10,750	$5.10	25d	1	1.41mi
20099 Seadale Ct Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2079	$5,500	$2.65	25d	1	1.42mi
20321 Estero Gardens Cir Estero, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1423	$3,700	$2.60	25d	3	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending With Contingencies
2. 2026-05-12
   status Active
3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending With Contingencies
4. 2026-04-30
   price $499,900
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $525,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$19/yr (+$2/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,130
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,109
• − Management: −$4,109
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$8,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,124
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $499,900 BEARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $525,000 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,130 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.