419 E Cheyenne Ave · Canadian, TX 79014

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1950 6,251 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom. 2 bath home featuring original wood floors, trim, and doors. The second bathroom boasts an expansive closet. Enjoy the spacious backyard.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Expansive closet
• Original wood floors

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• EXPANSIVE CLOSET
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($874 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#316 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Hemphill County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $25,338
• Equity at exit: $33,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $66,693
• Equity at exit: $55,478

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79014

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    price $69,000 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Two bedroom. 2 bath home featuring original wood floors, trim, and doors. The second bathroom boasts an expansive closet. Enjoy the spacious backyard.

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $73,000 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Two bedroom. 2 bath home featuring original wood floors, trim, and doors. The second bathroom boasts an expansive closet. Enjoy the spacious backyard.

17. 2017-11-15
    soldstatus
18. 2007-02-01
    soldstatus
19. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$839
• − Management: −$839
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $1,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$384
• After-tax cash flow: $2,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canadian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,018
• Composite: 40.23/100
• National rank: #3776
• State rank: #229 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canadian

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #7053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canadian, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,252

Population outlook (Hemphill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,290 people
• By 2030: 5,848 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 7,117 · +34.5%
• By 2050: 8,567 · +61.9%
• By 2075: 12,560 · +137.4%
• By 2100: 15,571 · +194.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Hemphill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.8% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+74.4 2016: R+75.8 2012: R+73.3 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Current HPI: 114.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $69,000 AARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $73,000 AARMLS
• 2017-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,357 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.