401 N Timberline Rd #10 · Fort Collins, CO 80524

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 251 Days on market

Built 2024 ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own a Newer Home in Fort Collins for Less Than You'd Think!Why keep renting when you can own a newer home in one of Northern Colorado's most vibrant cities? Built in 2024, this move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,475 square feet of modern, thoughtfully designed living space - at a price point that makes homeownership finally feel within reach. Whether you're buying your first home or simplifying into something newer and easier to maintain, this home checks every box without the price tag of a traditional purchase. Step inside to an open-concept living area filled with natural light, a modern kitchen with all appliances included, and durable laminate flooring throughout. The sp

Key facts

• Dog park
• Clubhouse
• Rv storage

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• DOG PARK
• RV STORAGE
• 1 GIG TDS INTERNET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: Water meter installed; Gas service by Xcel; No water rights
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home; Built by Clayton (model: The Thrill)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Storage structure on property; Minimal flood risk (C rating)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #673 of 966 statewide, top 71%, 464 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 24% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-32 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Poudre School District R-1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.15%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,608
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 N Timberline Rd #145	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	20mo	$42,000	$31	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $70,379
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $183,468
• Equity at exit: $9,510

Cash invested: $30,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80524

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $1,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $109,995

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,401	-5% $1,370	+0% $1,338	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,276
Rent	-10% $1,135	-5% $1,237	+0% $1,338	+5% $1,440	+10% $1,542
Rate	-1.0pp $1,394	-0.5pp $1,366	base $1,338	+0.5pp $1,310	+1.0pp $1,281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,499
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2720 Barnstormer St #5 Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1710	$2,430	$1.42	24d	1	0.39mi
743 Pokeweed Ln Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1526	$2,900	$1.90	14d	1	0.44mi
1902 Mackinac St Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,500	$1.58	14d	1	0.55mi
1902 Winamac Dr Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,500	$1.56	14d	1	0.58mi
3210 Sykes Dr Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.5	1485	$2,700	$1.82	14d	1	0.74mi
505 N Aria Way Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.0	1779	$2,800	$1.57	24d	1	0.90mi
1200 Duff Dr Fort Collins, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$3,400	$3.21	14d	72	1.20mi
1245 E Lincoln Ave Fort Collins, CO	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,863	$1.56	14d	8	1.26mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,995 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,995 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,995 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,995 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,995 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,995 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,995 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-03
   price $109,995 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,995 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,995 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,995 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,995 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $124,995
15. 2026-04-03
    status Active
16. 2026-04-02
    historical
17. 2026-03-03
    price $129,995
18. 2026-02-09
    status Active
19. 2026-02-05
    status Active
20. 2026-02-04
    historical
21. 2026-02-02
    historical
22. 2025-12-12
    price $139,000
23. 2025-09-17
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,161
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $15,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,640
• After-tax cash flow: $12,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Collins

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1750

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Larimer County · 338,255 people
• City population: 202,303
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 40,030
• Household income: $85,035
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1860.0

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -581.67%
• Current HPI: 274.4026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.13%
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $124,995 IRES
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — IRES
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $129,995 IRES
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — IRES
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — IRES
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $139,000 IRES
• 2025-09-17 Listed $145,000 IRES