461 Back Shandelee Rd · Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1983 2.00 ac lot $178/sqft · 19% below area Est $172k · 19% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living on approximately 2 acres in desirable Livingston Manor. This mobile home with additional living space offers a spacious yard, natural surroundings, and plenty of privacy while still being conveniently located near town. The property features 2 bedrooms and provides an opportunity for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment. With open outdoor space and a quiet setting, this property offers great potential.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open outdoor space
• Quiet setting

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• PLENTY OF PRIVACY
• OPEN OUTDOOR SPACE
• QUIET SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,342
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -18.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $95,154
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $265,312
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,708/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,183

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $337	+0% $298	+5% $258	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $236	+0% $298	+5% $359	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $333	base $298	+0.5pp $261	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Church St Unit 4 Livingston Manor, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	44d	1	0.77mi
23 Pearl St Unit 4 Livingston Manor, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,795	$2.99	44d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $139,900 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful country living on approximately 2 acres in desirable Livingston Manor. This mobile home with additional living space offers a spacious yard, natural surroundings, and plenty of privacy while still being conveniently located near town. The property features 2 bedrooms and provides an opportunity for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment. With open outdoor space and a quiet setting, this property offers great potential.

15. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus $115,000
16. 2023-08-08
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Perched on top sits a two bedroom mobile home with an amazing front yard. great location close to town with plenty of privacy. Two bedroom with a small addition, all sitting on two acres. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

17. 2022-10-29
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Perched on top sits a two bedroom mobile home with an amazing front yard. great location close to town with plenty of privacy. Two bedroom with a small addition, all sitting on two acres. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

18. 2022-10-04
    price $128,500 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Perched on top sits a two bedroom mobile home with an amazing front yard. great location close to town with plenty of privacy. Two bedroom with a small addition, all sitting on two acres. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

19. 2022-08-20
    price $132,500 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Perched on top sits a two bedroom mobile home with an amazing front yard. great location close to town with plenty of privacy. Two bedroom with a small addition, all sitting on two acres. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

20. 2022-07-30
    listed $139,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Perched on top sits a two bedroom mobile home with an amazing front yard. great location close to town with plenty of privacy. Two bedroom with a small addition, all sitting on two acres. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

21. 2022-07-29
    historical
22. 2022-05-29
    price $139,000
23. 2022-05-02
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,036 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,708
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$337
• After-tax cash flow: $3,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Livingston Manor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #25609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $139,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Sold (MLS) $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Price Changed $128,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-20 Price Changed $132,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-30 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-29 Price Changed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Listed $169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,708 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.