3953 S Fernpark Ter · Inverness Highlands South, FL 34452

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 926 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1972 0.33 ac lot Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits right next to Holden Park—enjoy easy access to a playground, soccer fields, and basketball courts just steps from your door. You’re also just minutes from downtown Inverness, where local favorites like Coach's Pub & Eatery, Chipotle, Chili's, and Stumpknockers offer dining and nightlife options for every taste. Conveniently near Inverness Primary School, Inverness Middle School, and Citrus High School, the location checks all the boxes. Inside, you’ll find a solid layout with an attached garage and a bonus shed for extra storage. With just minor updates needed, this home is the perfect canvas to add your personal style. Wheth

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Extra storage
• Bonus shed

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BONUS SHED
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Paved driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Stucco exterior
• Construction: Built on block and slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Level, rectangular lot; Publicly maintained paved city street frontage; Shed on the property; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Concrete flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-254/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Inverness Highlands South — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#508 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inverness Primary School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 65% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $200k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,866 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6343 E Gurley St	0.17mi	2/1.0	933 (+1%)	4mo	$220,000	$236	84
6589 E Harold Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0	953 (+3%)	4mo	$147,000	$154	76
4058 S Floral Ter	0.36mi	2/2.0	911 (-2%)	9mo	$189,900	$208	73
3880 S Floral Ter	0.35mi	2/2.0	908 (-2%)	9mo	$198,900	$219	73
6107 E Elgin Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	946 (+2%)	10mo	$199,000	$210	70
6157 E Glencoe St	0.44mi	2/1.5	926 (0%)	12mo	$185,000	$200	67
3461 S College Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	926 (0%)	5mo	$175,000	$189	67
6141 E Glencoe St	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	2mo	$207,500	$206	63
6700 E Gentry St	0.47mi	2/1.0	865 (-7%)	2mo	$110,500	$128	62
6162 E Oneida St	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	5mo	$229,000	$227	55
6396 E Oneida St	0.51mi	2/2.0	984 (+6%)	13mo	$220,000	$224	55
3957 S Ventura Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (+11%)	12mo	$175,000	$171	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,857
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,627
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34452

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $196,264

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    price $200,000
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $189,000 Active
18. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $45,000
19. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,069/yr (+$89/mo · 181.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness Highlands South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #9372

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Inverness Highlands South, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,729

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.43%
• Current HPI: 312.8871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+381.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $200,000 RACC
• 2026-03-23 Listed $189,000 RACC
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.