12442 Ashcroft Dr · Houston, TX 77035

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,873 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1964 7,440 sqft lot Est $339k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor friendly property. Easy access to freeways. Conveniently situated near the Medical Center and Reliant Stadium. Less than 30 minutes away from Hobby Airport. Needs some TLC.

Key facts

• Gorgeous kitchen
• Barn door entry
• Updated water heater

Tags

• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• BARN DOOR ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Insulation noted for energy efficiency
• HOA & community: Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1964; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms; Total of 9 rooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fondren Middle (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 840 students, 99% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 203 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,629/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 2844% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,867 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,013
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5823 Ettrick Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (+2%)	3mo	$339,000	$177	73
5922 Densmore Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	4mo	$195,000	$113	73
5715 Ettrick Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,838 (-2%)	7mo	$299,000	$163	71
5619 Effingham Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,640 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$183	53
5619 Duxbury St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (-9%)	0mo	$285,000	$167	51
5743 Ettrick Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-12%)	7mo	$339,000	$207	51
12318 Renwick Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (-11%)	7mo	$301,975	$182	47
5742 Cartagena St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (-12%)	3mo	$300,000	$181	41
5830 Ludington Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	5mo	$298,000	$182	41
5842 Ludington Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	6mo	$215,000	$131	40
5727 Cartagena St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	5mo	$289,900	$177	38
5503 Duxbury St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-15%)	4mo	$340,000	$213	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,783
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-60,200
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77035

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,473

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $205	+0% $123	+5% $41	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $19	+0% $123	+5% $227	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $197	base $123	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Farwell Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2418	$2,200	$0.91	44d	1	0.14mi
5751 Firenza Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$5,750	$3.24	0d	1	0.20mi
12115 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,961	$1.07	44d	1	0.37mi
6038 W Airport Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,755	$1.09	15d	1	0.42mi
6007 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,175	$1.23	0d	1	0.47mi
6171 Dryad Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	15d	1	0.59mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$8,750	$4.06	23d	1	0.70mi
11714 Hillcroft Ave Unit 1019510P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2152	$14,236	$6.62	23d	1	0.75mi
12245 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,515	$1.21	44d	1	0.76mi
12247 Sunset Meadow Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,895	$1.91	4d	1	0.77mi
6031 Cerritos Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.81mi
5631 Cerritos Dr Unit 1514826P Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1883	$11,906	$6.32	23d	1	0.83mi
5615 Cerritos Dr Unit 1514815P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1883	$7,300	$3.88	44d	1	0.87mi
11418 Braewick Dr Unit 1514798P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$12,178	$6.12	23d	1	1.03mi
5907 Warm Springs Rd Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2368	$8,750	$3.70	23d	1	1.04mi
5907 Warm Springs Rd Unit 1019555P Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2357	$14,324	$6.08	23d	1	1.04mi
5518 McKnight St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,800	$1.81	44d	1	1.14mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,254	$2.29	4d	22	1.27mi
13939 Hillcroft Ave Unit 13972 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,164	$1.54	21d	1	1.27mi
7842 Royan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,203	$1.05	0d	1	1.38mi
12404 Riva Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1679	$1,750	$1.04	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-22
    listed $320,000 Active
14. 2026-02-03
    soldstatus
15. 2026-02-03
    soldstatus
16. 2026-01-30
    soldstatus Closed 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Investor friendly property. Easy access to freeways. Conveniently situated near the Medical Center and Reliant Stadium. Less than 30 minutes away from Hobby Airport. Needs some TLC.

17. 2026-01-19
    status Pending 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Investor friendly property. Easy access to freeways. Conveniently situated near the Medical Center and Reliant Stadium. Less than 30 minutes away from Hobby Airport. Needs some TLC.

18. 2026-01-17
    listed $170,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Investor friendly property. Easy access to freeways. Conveniently situated near the Medical Center and Reliant Stadium. Less than 30 minutes away from Hobby Airport. Needs some TLC.

19. 2000-11-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,750 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,555/yr (+$130/mo · 41.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$3,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $2,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,019
• Household income: $58,686
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2844.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 29% White 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.44%
• Current HPI: 266.5195
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+88.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2000-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,750 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.