45034 Kachess Trl Unit 3C54 · Concrete, WA 98237

$45,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 461 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition 1,960 sqft lot $99/sqft · 61% below area $187/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to Lake Tyee's serene paradise in Concrete! This charming new listing features a cozy trailer with a full kitchen & sleeping for up to 6. The room addition boasts a warm wood stove & 3/4 bath for ultimate comfort. Enjoy the covered outdoor area for al fresco dining amid lush nature. Across the street, the comfort station offers heated showers & toilets. Feel worlds away in this tranquil retreat, yet conveniently close to shopping, restaurants & schools. Lake Tyee's amenities shine: dive into heated pools, unwind in hot tubs, gather at the clubhouse, play on the ballfield or playgrounds, fish the lake, or hike scenic trails. So much more awaits! In these crazy

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Full kitchen
• Wood stove

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• WOOD STOVE
• COVERED OUTDOOR AREA
• HEATED POOLS
• HOT TUBS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.6% in Concrete — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#157 in WA, #3,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Concrete School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #255 of 291 in WA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($315 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.44%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,006
• List price: $45,500
• Delta: -60.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $51,581
• Equity at exit: $40,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.30×
• Total profit: $131,189
• Equity at exit: $88,396

Cash invested: $12,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98237

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$187
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $635

Max offer price $45,500

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,375
• Closing costs: $1,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $187 · $2,244/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,500 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,500 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,500 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,500 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,500 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,500 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,500 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,500 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,500 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,500 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,500 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,500 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,500 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,500 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,500 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-01-14
    listed $45,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥86°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,549
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − HOA: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$1,324
• Taxable income: $4,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $3,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming trailer requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Focus on exterior repairs, interior updates, and roof replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Shingles appear worn and damaged
• Major flooring — Worn carpet in living areas
• Major interior walls/paint — Painted walls show wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Replace roof — Extends home life and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Shingles appear worn and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet in living areas	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Painted walls show wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Replace roof — Extends home life and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concrete School District
• NCES district ID: 5301660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,849
• Composite: 31.96/100
• National rank: #11033
• State rank: #255 of 291 in WA

Livability — Concrete

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #3709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,110

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.52%
• Current HPI: 533.5113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $45,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid