1626 Canta Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1996 1.23 ac lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · 22% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this inviting 3 bed, 2 bath home with a dedicated office and spacious Arizona room offers the perfect blend of comfort and scenery. Inside, you'll find a bright, open layout with versatile living spaces ideal for working from home or relaxing with family. The Arizona room provides the perfect spot to enjoy peaceful mornings, vibrant sunsets, and year-round indoor-outdoor living. Nestled in a serene setting with stunning natural beauty in every direction, this home delivers privacy, tranquility, and room to live the lifestyle you've been dreaming of.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Tranquility
• Arizona room

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• ARIZONA ROOM
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• PRIVACY
• TRANQUILITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 53,578 sq ft; Zoned SCC - R-3; County-maintained roads

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank; Solar PV electric system
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Solar energy system
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Subdivided lot; Irregular lot shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Ceramic tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 387 students, 83% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,510 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,942
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -21.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
179 Dee Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+0%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	73
118 Calle Tiburon	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-8%)	6mo	$275,000	$197	73
122 Calle Tiburon	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-8%)	8mo	$258,000	$185	72
1661 Círculo Ballena	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+5%)	17mo	$270,000	$170	70
179 Avenida Ostion	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+7%)	5mo	$345,000	$214	64
1614 Shea Ct #8	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-5%)	13mo	$278,000	$195	62
203 Anchoa Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-8%)	2mo	$282,500	$203	60
1674 Calle Cabo	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+4%)	9mo	$335,000	$214	58
1634 Circulo Puerto	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-9%)	13mo	$266,000	$193	51
1633 Circulo Puerto	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$171	48
1683 Eje Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+15%)	14mo	$339,000	$196	39
187 Calle Tiburon	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-9%)	18mo	$299,900	$218	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $129,481
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $373,466
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,090/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $215	+0% $153	+5% $91	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $79	+0% $153	+5% $228	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $209	base $153	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	15d	1	0.66mi
290 Via Mantaraya Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	2d	1	1.05mi
65 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	2d	1	1.09mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	2d	1	1.20mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	1.24mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	12d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    historical
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $240,000 Active 598-char remark
17. 2026-04-16
    price $240,000
18. 2026-04-07
    price $269,000
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$362/yr (+$30/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,090
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $2,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-01 Listed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $269,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-06 Listed $279,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,090 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.