5410 Heron Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1949 7,697 sqft lot Est $113k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estate Sale. No Sellers Disclosure Buyer to Verify room dimensions and square footage.

Key facts

• 7,697 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1949; Wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $120k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.56%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,050
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8426 Rockford Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	875 (+3%)	1mo	$100,000	$114	90
5218 Higgins St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (+0%)	9mo	$99,000	$116	72
8130 Sharondale Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	862 (+1%)	18mo	$110,000	$128	63
4917 Higgins St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+6%)	3mo	$75,000	$83	58
8130 Rockford Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	945 (+11%)	9mo	$169,999	$180	55
5242 Carmen St	0.17mi	3/2.0	975 (+15%)	23mo	$134,999	$138	44
4922 Larkspur St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-11%)	17mo	$125,000	$165	41
5774 Belmark St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+10%)	11mo	$70,000	$75	39
5342 Wenda St	0.46mi	3/2.0	975 (+15%)	14mo	$149,000	$153	38
10225 Teneha Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	932 (+10%)	16mo	$124,000	$133	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,225
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $26,591
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,656/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,140

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $218	+0% $184	+5% $150	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $129	+0% $184	+5% $238	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $214	base $184	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	0.23mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	0.30mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	45d	1	0.34mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	0.46mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	45d	1	0.73mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	45d	1	0.82mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.13mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	1.22mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	1.24mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	14d	1	1.26mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	1.29mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	1.30mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	9d	1	1.32mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	1.33mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 86-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $120,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,656
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,318
• − Management: −$1,318
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $121,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $131,000 HARMLS
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,656 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.