407 Graves St · Syracuse, NY 13203

$110,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1910 6,650 sqft lot Est $131k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

well-maintained two-family home located at 407 Graves St. Featuring two spacious units, this property offers flexibility, steady income potential, and room for long-term value growth. The first-floor unit provides a comfortable layout with generous living space, a bright kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms—perfect for a primary residence or reliable rental income. The second-floor unit mirrors the home’s charm with its own private entrance, updated living areas, and strong rental appeal. Additional highlights include furnaces and water heaters, storage, and a backyard/lot suitable for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or tenant use. Off-street parking enhances convenience for both unit

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Updated living areas
• Private entrance

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• UPDATED LIVING AREAS
• BACKYARD LOT
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $874/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,143/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $110k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.14%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501-503 Dewitt St	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,370 (+7%)	2mo	$198,000	$84	68
932-934 Oak St	0.36mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,050 (-8%)	2mo	$105,000	$51	63
300 Helen St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-6%)	4mo	$165,000	$79	63
128 John St	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,269 (+2%)	6mo	$129,000	$57	62
1107 Butternut St	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,002 (-10%)	9mo	$34,900	$17	56
1215 Oak St #17	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,482 (+12%)	1mo	$218,200	$88	52
635 E Division St	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,376 (+7%)	11mo	$110,000	$46	52
317 E Division St	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-9%)	2mo	$119,900	$59	50
807 Burnet Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-9%)	4mo	$205,000	$102	48
115 John St	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,516 (+13%)	5mo	$120,000	$48	43
339 N Beech St	0.65mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-9%)	9mo	$190,000	$94	41
1021 N Townsend St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-9%)	6mo	$69,900	$34	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $110,200
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.23×
• Total profit: $315,111
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13203

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,338/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $1,749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $929

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 39%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,142
Total (2 units)			$3,143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
712 Oak St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	2461	$1,700	$0.69	21d	1	0.24mi
365 Green St Syracuse, NY	5.0	3.5	2263	$3,300	$1.46	21d	1	0.27mi
746 E Laurel St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.29mi
447 E Washington St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	2095	$2,100	$1.00	13d	1	0.82mi
1205 Madison St Fl -1 Syracuse, NY	4.0	3.0	2988	$2,640	$0.88	43d	1	1.11mi
1108 Madison St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1580	$2,080	$1.32	43d	1	1.12mi
1607 Burnet Ave Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	2538	$1,650	$0.65	21d	1	1.22mi
202 Stafford Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1692	$1,800	$1.06	13d	1	1.34mi
409 Westmoreland Ave Unit 9 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	2480	$2,200	$0.89	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-12
   listed $110,000 Active
4. 2007-10-08
   soldstatus $63,000
5. 2003-06-06
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,338 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,338
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,017
• − Management: −$3,017
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $20,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,904
• After-tax cash flow: $16,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 152,627
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,180
• Household income: $46,997
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1566.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.69%
• Current HPI: 263.2588
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.39%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+86.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-12-16 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2007-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,338 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.