16226 Irwin Rd · Hannibal, NY 13126

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2001 0.77 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large Manufactured home on over an acre of land on Nine Mile Creek! 4 bedrooms with a huge master suite including a spacious bathroom and walk-in closets. Enjoy over 2500 square feet of living and minutes from Lake Ontario and the snowmobile trails. The Basic STAR will save you $725.00 per year. Call today to view!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 150 feet of frontage
• Oversized laundry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EXPANSIVE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY
• 150 FEET OF FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Single-story (1 story); Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Shed(s) and storage; Irregular, rural lot; Beach, river, and stream access on Ninemile Creek; 150 feet of frontage; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Main level layout
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,033 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Hannibal Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #471 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $225k implies a 650% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,982 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,307
• Equity at exit: $41,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $14,111
• Equity at exit: $32,676

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,402/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $191,982

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,402 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,402 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$5,402
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$6,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hannibal Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $48,283
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4380
• State rank: #471 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hannibal

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1033
• US rank: #20436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+542.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $224,900 CNYIS
• 2015-04-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CNYIS
• 2013-09-26 Listed $35,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,402 · +76.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.