413 Winter Ridge Blvd · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$149,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · Condo public records · 244 Days on market

Built 1995 $250/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2B/2B condo offers a spectacular view of Lake Conine from your screened back porch. Community is on Lake Smart w/ boat slips & dock. Don't miss this clean, ready to move in home w/ sunsets made for peace & realxation!

Key facts

• Views of lake conine
• Heated swimming pool
• $250 HOA

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE SMART
• OVERSIZED SCREENED LANAI
• VIEWS OF LAKE CONINE
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• FISHING AND BOAT DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (about $749); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available
• Home design: Condominium; One story
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-649/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $150k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-28,882
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-34,461
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,041/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $139,942

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	23d	1	0.04mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	14d	1	0.10mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	3d	1	0.13mi
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	23d	1	0.13mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	23d	1	0.74mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	23d	1	1.01mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	1.06mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	1.29mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	23d	1	1.31mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	23d	1	1.44mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	1.48mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,500 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,500 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-01-28
    price $149,500
15. 2025-10-17
    listed $158,900 Active
16. 2010-03-25
    soldstatus $56,500
17. 2010-03-18
    soldstatus $56,500 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This 2B/2B condo offers a spectacular view of Lake Conine from your screened back porch. Community is on Lake Smart w/ boat slips & dock. Don't miss this clean, ready to move in home w/ sunsets made for peace & realxation!

18. 2010-01-19
    listed $58,900 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    This 2B/2B condo offers a spectacular view of Lake Conine from your screened back porch. Community is on Lake Smart w/ boat slips & dock. Don't miss this clean, ready to move in home w/ sunsets made for peace & realxation!

19. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus $50,900
20. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus $50,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$2,041
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$3,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+193.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $149,500 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-17 Listed $158,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2010-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 2010-03-18 Sold (MLS) $56,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-19 Listed $58,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,900 Public Records
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,041 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.