141 River Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$239,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1927 1.60 ac lot $211/sqft · 26% below area Est $325k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a private, park-like wooded setting, this unique property offers a variety of buildings, including a rustic 3-bedroom camp, surrounded by nature and opportunity. The main camp has a charming, cozy feel with a newer roof and heat and some insulation on the first floor, making it ideal to enjoy as-is or remodel and reimagine it into something new! A spacious 26' x 30' pavilion features a concrete floor, power, and an outdoor kitchen, opening to a large fire pit set against the forest--perfect for entertaining or relaxing under the stars. The pavilion could also be used as a carport with covered storage for vehicles or toys. The grounds are thoughtfully laid out and designed for

Key facts

• On demand hot water
• Garage woodshed
• Large fire pit

Tags

• SPACIOUS PAVILION
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• LARGE FIRE PIT
• FULL SERVICE BATH HOUSE
• ON DEMAND HOT WATER
• GARAGE WOODSHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 10 vehicles; Stone parking area; Carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cabin property type
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Outdoor lighting; Outdoor kitchen; Outdoor shower; Shed(s); Private, wooded and partially cleared landscaped lot (1.6 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen includes a refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Pellet stove; Space heater
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Living room with a pellet stove fireplace; Basement with pillar/post/pier foundation
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $240k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $202,747 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,343
• List price: $239,500
• Delta: -26.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 Old Northville Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+9%)	24mo	$270,000	$218	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $136,207
• Equity at exit: $215,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $396,409
• Equity at exit: $465,296

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,853/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $239,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $159	+0% $91	+5% $24	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $11	+0% $91	+5% $172	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $152	base $91	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $239,500 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,500 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,500 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,500 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,500 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,500 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,500 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,500 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,500 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,500 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,500 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,500 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $249,500 Active 1396-char remark
15. 2009-06-12
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,853 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,097/yr (+$91/mo · 59.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$1,853
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable loss: −$2,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $1,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+351.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $239,500 Global MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,500 Global MLS
• 2009-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,853 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.