13085 Orchard Rd · Southgate, MI 48195

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1953 5,227 sqft lot Est $168k · 28% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming three bedroom, two bath, brick ranch with a lovely covered porch, fully fenced yard, with vinyl fencing and a 2 1/2 car detached garage. Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors, throughout the first floor, a large eat-in kitchen, lots of room for storage throughout, and a finished basement, with an added room, with sound proofing, to serve as a wonderful home office. The basement has been professionally waterproofed, with a sump pump, and the furnace was replaced in 2018.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Finished basement

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• VINYL FENCING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with about 2.5 car capacity
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick exterior
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 130 (0.12 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement with sump pump; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in MI, #582 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Southgate Community School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #379 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Allen Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 338 students, 59% FRL); Davidson Middle School (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 631 students, 52% FRL); Southgate Anderson High School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 990 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $215k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,818 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,158
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13109 Balsam St	0.19mi	3/1.0	999 (-1%)	5mo	$185,000	$185	84
13181 Peach St	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	979 (-3%)	5mo	$92,000	$94	81
3926 21st St	0.37mi	3/1.0	970 (-4%)	2mo	$76,000	$78	74
3327 20th St	0.50mi	3/1.0	996 (-2%)	3mo	$165,000	$166	71
4298 19th St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+4%)	1mo	$195,000	$186	66
3577 22nd St	0.31mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	3mo	$110,000	$122	65
3585 22nd St	0.31mi	3/1.0	914 (-10%)	6mo	$156,000	$171	64
3838 16th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	4mo	$155,000	$149	64
3440 20th St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	945 (-7%)	1mo	$190,000	$201	64
13765 Leroy St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+6%)	5mo	$190,000	$177	63
4205 17th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+11%)	1mo	$175,000	$155	50
14620 Trenton Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	6mo	$172,000	$156	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-46,875
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-51,356
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48195

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,136/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,871

Max offer price $176,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-155	+0% $-216	+5% $-277	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-279	+0% $-216	+5% $-153	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-161	base $-216	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13185 Sycamore St Southgate, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	26d	1	0.36mi
3851 17th St Wyandotte, MI	2.0	1.0	764	$1,200	$1.57	4d	1	0.56mi
13861 Strathcona St Southgate, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	797	$1,140	$1.43	0d	5	0.56mi
1569 Sycamore St Wyandotte, MI	3.0	1.0	944	$1,695	$1.80	45d	1	0.67mi
1024 Adelaide St Wyandotte, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$3,100	$3.88	0d	1	0.94mi
17400 Fort St Riverview, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,225	$1.53	0d	11	1.00mi
13020 Pullman St Southgate, MI	4.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	4d	1	1.20mi
667 Pine St Unit 2 Wyandotte, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	3d	1	1.24mi
667 Pine St Unit 1 Wyandotte, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	0d	1	1.24mi
2700 6th St Wyandotte, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	45d	2	1.44mi
15027 Brookview Dr Riverview, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	1020	$1,499	$1.47	0d	34	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 508-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,136 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,223 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,136
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2632340
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,234
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7591
• State rank: #379 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 29,366
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,366
• Household income: $66,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.28%
• Current HPI: 207.9776
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+169.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-20 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-19 Coming Soon $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 2011-10-05 Sold (MLS) $71,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-10-05 Sold (MLS) $71,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-09-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-01 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-01 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,136 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.