191 Orange St · Buffalo, NY 14204

$75,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,686 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1900 3,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great property, Needs some updates, 2 family unit in the Fruit Belt great investment area near medical cordoor price to sell Hugh bonus area. House being sold "As is"

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,312/mo this rent would consume 184% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 168.85%
• DSCR: 8.51
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,078
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Peach St	0.15mi	6/2.0	2,612 (-3%)	4mo	$191,000	$73	85
361 E North St Unit S	0.21mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,544 (-5%)	3mo	$172,500	$68	72
37 Pershing Ave	0.35mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,641 (-2%)	1mo	$85,000	$32	71
243 Peach St	0.15mi	6/2.0	2,560 (-5%)	20mo	$149,000	$58	69
253 High St	0.10mi	6/2.0	2,448 (-9%)	16mo	$233,000	$95	67
144 Grey St	0.52mi	6/2.0	2,568 (-4%)	8mo	$70,000	$27	62
109 Northampton St	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,748 (+2%)	22mo	$325,000	$118	51
248 Dodge St	0.42mi	6/3.0	2,520 (-6%)	20mo	$345,000	$137	50
211 Riley St	0.65mi	6/3.0	2,522 (-6%)	7mo	$210,000	$83	50
53 Pershing Ave	0.36mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,360 (-12%)	11mo	$149,000	$63	49
511 Dodge St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,564 (-4%)	8mo	$80,000	$31	48
494 Best St	0.49mi	6/2.0	2,352 (-12%)	17mo	$267,000	$114	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $187,092
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.57×
• Total profit: $452,949
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$906
• Net cashflow: $2,955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,997	-5% $2,976	+0% $2,955	+5% $2,934	+10% $2,912
Rent	-10% $2,614	-5% $2,785	+0% $2,955	+5% $3,125	+10% $3,295
Rate	-1.0pp $2,993	-0.5pp $2,974	base $2,955	+0.5pp $2,935	+1.0pp $2,916

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,312
Total (2 units)			$4,312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	25d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2023-06-14
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
3. 2023-02-28
   listed $75,000 Active
4. 2023-02-03
   historical
5. 2022-12-12
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2017-10-24
   status Active
7. 2017-05-21
   historical
8. 2017-05-09
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
9. 2017-01-25
   price $49,900
10. 2016-11-23
    price $61,900
11. 2016-11-23
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $796 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 145.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,140
• − Management: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $36,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,732
• After-tax cash flow: $26,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-06-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-02-28 Listed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-02-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-12-12 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-10-24 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-09 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-25 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-11-23 Price Changed $61,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-11-23 Listed $30,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.