931 CR 457a · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$224,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1990 9,278 sqft lot Est $197k · 14% over $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Fenced interior yard
• Hvac updated

Tags

• FRONT SUNROOM
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FENCED INTERIOR YARD
• CORNER LOT LOCATION
• ROOF REPLACED
• HVAC UPDATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single family residence; Zoning: R4C; Lot approximately 0.21 acres (87 x 100); Several septic systems: 1; Living area ~1,064 sq ft; total building area ~1,856 sq ft; Association fee required
• HOA & community: Has HOA — $40 annually (approximately $3.33/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lake access; Sliding doors; Paved, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric water heater; Range; Refrigerator; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $224k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,525 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2367 CR 451	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,014 (-5%)	8mo	$215,000	$212	74
2063 CR 439a	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-1%)	18mo	$120,000	$114	67
1343 CR 437	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,145 (+8%)	1mo	$265,000	$231	62
1344 CR 437	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	12mo	$185,000	$165	62
2260 CR 444	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-1%)	13mo	$195,000	$185	62
1335 CR 442	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+7%)	5mo	$210,000	$184	59
2156 CR 437a	0.38mi	2/2.0	990 (-7%)	15mo	$220,000	$222	58
2429 CR 451	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+10%)	10mo	$122,000	$104	55
2100 CR 452	0.30mi	2/1.0	970 (-9%)	19mo	$95,000	$98	52
1265 CR 443	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (+13%)	13mo	$219,999	$182	47
1268 CR 436	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (-5%)	12mo	$207,000	$205	46
1381 CR 446a	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,217 (+14%)	17mo	$255,000	$210	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $40,899
• Equity at exit: $126,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $132,643
• Equity at exit: $218,640

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $194,941

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-101	+0% $-164	+5% $-228	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-224	+0% $-164	+5% $-105	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-108	base $-164	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1314 CR 443 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,575	$1.62	22d	1	0.43mi
1115 NW 12th Ln Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	22d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $224,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $224,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $224,000 Active
18. 2017-06-13
    soldstatus $92,000
19. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $92,000 Sold 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

20. 2017-04-14
    status Pending 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

21. 2017-03-31
    price $95,000 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

22. 2017-02-24
    price $98,000 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

23. 2016-12-10
    price $99,900 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

24. 2016-09-21
    status Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

25. 2016-09-16
    status Pending 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

26. 2016-08-15
    listed $105,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Just Right!! This 2 Bedroom, 2 bath custom built home in desirable Tracys Point community is waiting for first time home buyers or a retirement couple ready to enjoy year round florida living. From the enclosed front porch, step into the spacious living/dining room area and go right thru to the screened in back porch. Home has been well taken care of and it shows. Well designed kitchen can have you cooking with ease. Washer and Dryer in back of garage make it very convenient to allow you more relaxing time on the porches. Not too big, not too small so you can move about doing whatever you want to.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$773/yr (+$64/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$6,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+113.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $224,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $92,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-31 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-24 Price Changed $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-10 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-15 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.