3909 Reche Rd #154 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1968 Fair condition Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-Bedroom Home with Stunning Golf Course Views! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in a serene mobile home park in Fallbrook, CA. Boasting a spacious living room and a versatile office space, this home offers comfort and functionality. The open-concept layout allows for plenty of natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Step outside and be captivated by the expansive front patio deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The breathtaking backyard patio deck overlooks a multi-level backyard, ideal for entertaining or simply unwinding in your private oasis. Backing up to the golf course, you’ll enjoy stunning views and peaceful surroundings. Additional features include a 2-car carport, a massive storage shed, and an extra smaller storage shed for all your organizational needs. This home truly combines convenience, comfort, and natural beauty. Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity—schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE
• EXPANSIVE FRONT PATIO DECK
• BEAUTIFULLY TERRACED YARD
• PICTURESQUE GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• COVERED 2 CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Valley Oaks park; directions: Reche Rd to Valley Oaks, home is in the southeast corner of the park
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Located in the Valley Oaks community in Fallbrook
• Construction: Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Full yard fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Double oven; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Clubhouse access (community amenity)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.4% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.15%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,880
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Reche Rd #112	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$119	91
3909 Reche Rd #154	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$215,000	$149	89
3909 Reche Rd Spc 104	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,422 (-1%)	16mo	$285,000	$200	80
3909 Reche Rd #126	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,422 (-1%)	22mo	$220,000	$155	75
3909 Reche Rd #183	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	14mo	$270,000	$208	66
3909 Reche Rd #214	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	15mo	$230,000	$177	65
3909 Reche Rd #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (-14%)	7mo	$250,000	$203	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-19,450
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,891
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $687	-5% $596	+0% $504	+5% $413	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $387	+0% $504	+5% $621	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $572	base $504	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 Cyprus Island Ct Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,195	$2.23	0d	1	0.79mi
3043 Ridge Creek Dr Unit Casi Fallbrook, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,838
• − Management: −$2,838
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $1,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$467
• After-tax cash flow: $5,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the kitchen and flooring. Upgrades to the exterior and interior will significantly enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — No photos of kitchen
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — No visible issues
• Moderate Flooring — Hardwood floors appear worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Up-to-date fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Refinish hardwood floors — Fresh floors improve aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · No visible issues	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Hardwood floors appear worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Up-to-date fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Refinish hardwood floors — Fresh floors improve aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $265,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-28 Sold (MLS) $215,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $225,000 CRMLS