528 Vz County Road 1308 · Canton, TX 75103

$149,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2003 3.09 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four bedroom doublewide sits on 3 acres and sits about a mile from the frontage road of interstate 20. It is a fixer upper that is in need of an AC unit, roofing, flooring and appliances. The main bedroom is on the opposite side of the home. The utility room is a nice size that can accomodate a freezer or used as a mud room style. It is located in Van school district; however, their may be a possibility to attend Canton and Grand Saline schools. Come roam and enjoy the beautiful shade trees and turn this into your new space.

Key facts

• Van school district
• Canton schools
• Grand saline schools

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• VAN SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CANTON SCHOOLS
• GRAND SALINE SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.0% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#239 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.51%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,544
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,901
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75103

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $304	+0% $262	+5% $220	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $199	+0% $262	+5% $325	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $300	base $262	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $149,500 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $159,000 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    This four bedroom doublewide sits on 3 acres and sits about a mile from the frontage road of interstate 20. It is a fixer upper that is in need of an AC unit, roofing, flooring and appliances. The main bedroom is on the opposite side of the home. The utility room is a nice size that can accomodate a freezer or used as a mud room style. It is located in Van school district; however, their may be a possibility to attend Canton and Grand Saline schools. Come roam and enjoy the beautiful shade trees and turn this into your new space.

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $179,999 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    This four bedroom doublewide sits on 3 acres and sits about a mile from the frontage road of interstate 20. It is a fixer upper that is in need of an AC unit, roofing, flooring and appliances. The main bedroom is on the opposite side of the home. The utility room is a nice size that can accomodate a freezer or used as a mud room style. It is located in Van school district; however, their may be a possibility to attend Canton and Grand Saline schools. Come roam and enjoy the beautiful shade trees and turn this into your new space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $2,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #5787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,222

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.07%
• Current HPI: 227.6156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $179,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.