4400 Hedgethorn Cir · Burton, MI 48509

$179,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1966 0.53 ac lot Est $208k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built with 1,650 sq ft above grade finished area
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Level lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Fireplace in living room (wood-burning); Basement walk-out access (unfinished); Furnished status negotiable; Intercom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($285/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Kearsley Community School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #343 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $165,716 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4400 Hedgethorn Cir	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,650 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$124	100
2278 Thistlewood Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,588 (-4%)	9mo	$221,000	$139	71
2320 Covert Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+1%)	9mo	$95,000	$57	71
2514 N Genesee Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-6%)	4mo	$240,000	$155	69
3042 Cashin St	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-4%)	7mo	$206,900	$131	63
4477 Briar Ln	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,430 (-13%)	3mo	$190,000	$133	57
2195 Briar Ln	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,476 (-10%)	10mo	$223,000	$151	53
2246 Woodstead St	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,672 (+1%)	9mo	$188,000	$112	52
2209 Blackthorn Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,862 (+13%)	6mo	$235,000	$126	51
4403 Davison Rd Lot10 Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	10mo	$35,000	$19	42
3088 Layman Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-11%)	5mo	$174,000	$118	41
4298 Farmcrest St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,867 (+13%)	2mo	$175,000	$94	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,589
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,870
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48509

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,204/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $75	+0% $24	+5% $-27	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-42	+0% $24	+5% $89	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $69	base $24	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1540 chars)

   Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1540 chars)

   Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

3. 2026-05-01
   listed $179,900 Active 1540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1540 chars)

   Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

4. 2026-05-01
   listed $179,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1540 chars)

   Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

5. 2026-04-28
   historical $179,900 1540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1540 chars)

   Discover this unique Mid-Century Modern Ranch, where classic architectural flair meets thoughtful modern updates. Spanning 1,650 square feet of meticulously maintained living space, this home immediately stands out with its striking custom flared gables, offering a sophisticated curb appeal that is rare to find. The interior layout features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary en suite boasting a professionally renovated shower (2019). The heart of the home flows seamlessly, supported by a kitchen equipped with a newer dishwasher and garbage disposal. Quality and peace of mind are built into the bones of this custom residence, featuring Wallside Windows installed with a 35-year guarantee and a brand-new furnace installed in January 2022, which includes a 10-year warranty. One of the most functional highlights of this property is the versatile basement, which provides convenient walkout access directly to the garage. Recent structural investments ensure long-term durability, including a full roof replacement in 2019 and comprehensive water remediation completed in August 2025. Located within the desirable Kearsley School District, this home combines vintage character with the reliability of major recent mechanical and exterior upgrades. Whether you are drawn to the architectural lines of the mid-century era or the comfort of a move-in-ready ranch, this property delivers on every front. Schedule your showing today to experience this one-of-a-kind home in person. Close to For Mar Nature Preserve!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,204
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$651
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kearsley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2620070
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,066
• Composite: 26.99/100
• National rank: #7068
• State rank: #343 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 9,532

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.63%
• Current HPI: 210.1588
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,204 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.