102 Osborne Private Dr · Elizabethton, TN 37601

$450,000

None bd · 4.0 ba · 2,544 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1942

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Welcome to this fully rented fourplex that is perfectly placed just minutes from ETSU and Milligan college. Located in Johnson City, 102 Osborne Private drive also just down the road from the Tweetsie trail and Elizabethton. The top level unit has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, while the 3 lower units are all 1/1. Don't forget this property qualifies for VA financing! Financials available upon request. Any and all information has been taken from the current owner and CRS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information. Owner is relative of agent.

Key facts

• Built 1942
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Two-story quadruplex (residential income property); Block and stucco construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Sloped lot; Lot dimensions approximately 69 x 95 x 47 x 106; Zoned for household use

Interior

• Interior features: Wall furnace heating; Wall unit cooling; Other heating type

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 3×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $151/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $423k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in Elizabethton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#121 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elizabethton (suburban): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #35 of 139 in TN (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,230/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $450k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $423,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-26,366
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $60,789
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37601

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 31.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,599/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$888
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,463

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $860	-5% $733	+0% $606	+5% $478	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $438	+0% $606	+5% $773	+10% $940
Rate	-1.0pp $832	-0.5pp $720	base $606	+0.5pp $489	+1.0pp $370

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,209
▸ 3× units	1	1	$3,021
Total (4 units)			$4,230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Swadley Rd Johnson City, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1300	$1,700	$1.31	14d	1	0.85mi
704 Swadley Rd Johnson City, TN	2.0–3.0	1.5–3.5	1800	$1,400	$0.78	14d	2	0.88mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 598-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $450,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,195 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,596/yr (+$133/mo · 99.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,599
• − Insurance: −$2,916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,061
• − Management: −$4,061
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $7,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabethton
• NCES district ID: 4701110
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $30,800
• Composite: 28.94/100
• National rank: #6630
• State rank: #35 of 139 in TN

Livability — Elizabethton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #11785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elizabethton, TN
• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• City population: 513
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 38,008
• Household income: $50,686
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1464.0

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,493 people
• By 2030: 52,639 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 47,929 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 42,877 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 31,487 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 21,979 · -59.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.9% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -47.2pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+47.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.16%
• Current HPI: 290.506
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+238.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $450,000 TVRMLS
• 2018-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $145,100 Public Records
• 2017-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,599 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.