Belmont (Independence Hill) Plan · Morristown, TN 37814

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 124 Days on market

Excellent condition $630/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 123 days

🏗️ New construction. The $75,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $208,219.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-862 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 330 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.74%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,219
• List price: $75,995
• Delta: -63.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2426 Buffalo Trail Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+5%)	11mo	$230,000	$184	61
1003 De Vault St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	21mo	$214,000	$191	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-88,211
• Equity at exit: $31,046

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.50×
• Total profit: $-145,813
• Equity at exit: $18,003

Cash invested: $58,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37814

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$260 /mo · $3,123/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-862

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $83,533

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,055
• Closing costs: $6,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,995 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,995 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,995 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,995 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-02-16
    listed $75,995 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,663
• − Property taxes: −$3,123
• − Insurance: −$1,041
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$6,057
• Taxable loss: −$14,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Belmont manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would be ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamblen County
• NCES district ID: 4700001
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,361
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7412
• State rank: #57 of 139 in TN

Livability — Morristown

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morristown, TN
• County: Hamblen County · 35,239 people
• City population: 35,239
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 35,239
• Household income: $55,650
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Hamblen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,185 people
• By 2030: 65,707 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 66,189 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 65,798 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 62,642 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 55,702 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamblen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.1% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+46.4 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.88%
• Current HPI: 299.6486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morristown, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $75,995 Zillow