540 Potrero St · San Jacinto, CA 92582

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1977 6,098 sqft lot $156/sqft · 7% below area Est $224k · 7% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Cottonwood Estates, a desirable 55+ community where you own the land — offering a wonderful opportunity for affordable living with a low HOA. This home features two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a comfortable living room, separate family room, and convenient indoor laundry area. The kitchen includes a new oven, gas cooktop, dishwasher, and garbage disposal. The seller has recently installed new plush carpet throughout the home and added new ceiling fans for comfort. The backyard is generously sized and includes a storage shed plus large RV access — perfect for extra parking or storage needs. Affordable, low-maintenance living is possible in Cottonwood Estates — don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Own your own land
• New plush carpet
• New ceiling fans

Tags

• OWN YOUR OWN LAND
• NEW OVEN
• GAS COOKTOP STOVE
• NEW PLUSH CARPET
• NEW CEILING FANS
• GOOD SIZED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $209k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,000
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -6.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
562 Potrero St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	23mo	$195,000	$145	79
350 Potrero St	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	24mo	$227,000	$169	72
207 Flora Vista St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-0%)	16mo	$229,850	$172	72
204 N La Paloma Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$224,000	$156	68
328 Pepperwood St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$318,000	$237	66
750 Porterfield Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	22mo	$314,000	$234	64
222 Lori Ann St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+0%)	11mo	$299,000	$221	63
242 Lori Ann St	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	22mo	$345,000	$257	59
927 Marcy	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+12%)	3mo	$402,900	$269	58
253 N Palomar Ave	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	22mo	$250,000	$200	58
204 Flora Vista St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	24mo	$279,000	$233	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $144,863
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $402,132
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92582

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,981/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $547	+0% $488	+5% $428	+10% $369
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $396	+0% $488	+5% $580	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $541	base $488	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 N Palomar Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,152	$0.84	24d	1	0.37mi
1066 Birch Ln San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1785	$2,600	$1.46	5d	1	0.43mi
1106 Don Carlos Ct San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,999	$2.16	44d	1	0.52mi
1410 Cottonwood Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.5	1257	$2,300	$1.83	44d	1	0.55mi
419 Angela Way San Jacinto, CA	3.0	1.0	988	$2,150	$2.18	15d	1	0.68mi
165 Tiger Ln San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1339	$2,150	$1.61	3d	1	0.72mi
1311 Heritage Ranch Rd San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,750	$1.94	44d	1	0.88mi
1559 Park Meadows Dr San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,675	$1.63	44d	1	0.95mi
289 Brown St San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.98mi
1344 Sierra Seneca Dr San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	5d	1	1.03mi
1318 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	24d	1	1.04mi
249 Idyllwild Dr San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1025	$2,300	$2.24	44d	1	1.04mi
1397 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	937	$1,795	$1.92	44d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: trashgas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-19
   price $219,900 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Welcome to Cottonwood Estates, a desirable 55+ community where you own the land — offering a wonderful opportunity for affordable living with a low HOA. This home features two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a comfortable living room, separate family room, and convenient indoor laundry area. The kitchen includes a new oven, gas cooktop, dishwasher, and garbage disposal. The seller has recently installed new plush carpet throughout the home and added new ceiling fans for comfort. The backyard is generously sized and includes a storage shed plus large RV access — perfect for extra parking or storage needs. Affordable, low-maintenance living is possible in Cottonwood Estates — don’t miss this opportunity!

10. 2026-03-23
    listed $229,500 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to Cottonwood Estates, a desirable 55+ community where you own the land — offering a wonderful opportunity for affordable living with a low HOA. This home features two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a comfortable living room, separate family room, and convenient indoor laundry area. The kitchen includes a new oven, gas cooktop, dishwasher, and garbage disposal. The seller has recently installed new plush carpet throughout the home and added new ceiling fans for comfort. The backyard is generously sized and includes a storage shed plus large RV access — perfect for extra parking or storage needs. Affordable, low-maintenance living is possible in Cottonwood Estates — don’t miss this opportunity!

11. 2013-02-20
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

12. 2012-09-19
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

13. 2012-09-10
    soldstatus $38,000 Closed 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

14. 2012-08-17
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

15. 2012-07-13
    price $49,900 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

16. 2012-06-11
    listed $59,900 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    SPACIOUS MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN AGE RESTRICTED 55+ AREA.

17. 2002-03-12
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,981 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,981
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $2,614
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$627
• After-tax cash flow: $5,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• City population: 33,778
• Population (ZIP): 22,732

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 22% White 19% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.05%
• Current HPI: 393.657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $229,500 CRMLS
• 2013-02-20 Sold (MLS) $38,000 CRMLS
• 2012-09-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-09-10 Sold (MLS) $38,000 CRMLS
• 2012-08-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-07-13 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2012-06-11 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2002-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,981 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.