135 Gregory Pl · Winchester, VA 22603

$84,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Built 2018

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2018-built manufactured ranch-style home is move-in ready and well maintained for its new owner. The home offers an open floor plan featuring a spacious kitchen with abundant countertop space, a large pantry, and a dining area that flows into the main living space. The living room provides plenty of open space for comfortable everyday living, and the home also includes a dedicated laundry room. All three bedrooms are generously sized, including a primary bedroom with a private ensuite bathroom. The two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom and offer ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Just off the kitchen and dining area is a deck, providing a great space for outdoo

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Large pantry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• OUTDOOR RELAXATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA amenities include pool(s), clubhouse, fitness center, lake, party room, playgrounds, and basketball courts; HOA fee covers trash and pool(s); Additional monthly fee of $953

Exterior

• Parking: Paved, private driveway with assigned spaces; Two driveway/assigned parking spaces (total 2)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured home; Above-grade living space only (no below-grade area reported); Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Other structures listed above and below grade
• Exterior features: Community in-ground pool; Community outdoor pool; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Lake; Party room; Tot lots/playground; Basketball courts; Pets allowed with size/weight and number restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances not listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and living area; Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 3.1% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,895 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.54%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $43,467
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $111,391
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22603

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $302/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 Franklin St Unit 1105 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1047	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	1.03mi
1016 Franklin St Unit 3 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,498	$1.31	43d	1	1.04mi
647 Laurelwood Cir Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,150	$1.48	43d	1	1.27mi
532 N Pleasant Valley Rd Unit POPLAR2 QUICK DELV Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	1.32mi
220 Kimberly Way Winchester, VA	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi
30 N Euclid Ave Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,000	$1.23	43d	1	1.45mi
224 East St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,395	$1.22	43d	1	1.46mi
609 Smithfield Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,575	$1.61	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,500 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $84,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,500 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $89,500 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $99,000
19. 2026-03-13
    listed $110,000 Active
20. 2011-07-11
    soldstatus $21,569,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $302 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 129.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$302
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $9,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,391
• After-tax cash flow: $8,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 62,070
• Population (ZIP): 17,748

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.71%
• Current HPI: 220.1805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $21,569,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $302 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.