200 Brown Hollow Rd · McKinney, KY 40437

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1944 3.00 ac lot $95/sqft · 19% below area Est $154k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

" Calling all contractors, investors and ambitious buyers! Bring your vision to complete this home! They have already installed a new heating and air system. Drywall still needed in some areas. Design the kitchen to your liking. This home sits on 3 acres so could even build another house on property. Many options just needs a vision brought to life. Buying house as is. Will need to be cash offer or conventional loan.

Key facts

• 3 acres
• 3 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• NEW HEATING AND AIR SYSTEM
• 3 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 3.0 acres lot (public records); Building area approximately 1,312 total

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Carport present
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7 (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#518 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hustonville Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 432 students, 65% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 745 students, 67% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 951 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $429 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-435 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,605 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,818
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -18.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8925 KY 698	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+4%)	17mo	$182,500	$133	66
265 Brown Hollow Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+15%)	15mo	$85,000	$57	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $675
• Equity at exit: $34,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $22,742
• Equity at exit: $39,311

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40437

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $136	+0% $101	+5% $65	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $59	+0% $101	+5% $143	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $133	base $101	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $124,900 Active 428-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 160.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$221
• After-tax cash flow: $1,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County
• NCES district ID: 2103480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $35,356
• Composite: 22.68/100
• National rank: #8042
• State rank: #131 of 165 in KY

Livability — McKinney

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #26477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,488

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,293 people
• By 2030: 22,392 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 20,336 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,016 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 12,976 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 8,446 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.3 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Current HPI: 256.6402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $124,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.