90 Talco Way · Hayfork, CA 96041

$98,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1950 $89/sqft · 34% below area Est $149k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a starter or investment house? Look no further. Here is a 3 bed/1 bath home located in Hayfork on 0.2 acres. There is a workshop, a lovely yard with established trees, and great views out back of the valley and mountains. Home has a wood stove, laundry room, and fully fenced yard. Power is provided by TPUD and has city water/sewer. With a little TLC this could be a great little home for a first-time owner or for an investment property!

Key facts

• New flooring
• City water
• Walk in closet

Tags

• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story; Residential resale home; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Fenced yard; Outbuilding; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.0% in Hayfork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#677 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Valley Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #788 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,505
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: -34.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,942
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,165
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96041

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,608/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $231	+0% $203	+5% $175	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $158	+0% $203	+5% $247	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $228	base $203	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $98,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $105,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $115,000 Active 917-char remark
20. 2025-01-22
    price $210,000
21. 2024-11-06
    price $220,000
22. 2024-07-15
    status Active
23. 2024-07-15
    price $225,000
24. 2023-12-19
    listed $240,000 Active
25. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus $137,000

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Looking for a starter or investment house? Look no further. Here is a 3 bed/1 bath home located in Hayfork on 0.2 acres. There is a workshop, a lovely yard with established trees, and great views out back of the valley and mountains. Home has a wood stove, laundry room, and fully fenced yard. Power is provided by TPUD and has city water/sewer. With a little TLC this could be a great little home for a first-time owner or for an investment property!

26. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus $137,000
27. 2022-02-03
    listed $145,000

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Looking for a starter or investment house? Look no further. Here is a 3 bed/1 bath home located in Hayfork on 0.2 acres. There is a workshop, a lovely yard with established trees, and great views out back of the valley and mountains. Home has a wood stove, laundry room, and fully fenced yard. Power is provided by TPUD and has city water/sewer. With a little TLC this could be a great little home for a first-time owner or for an investment property!

28. 2021-04-24
    historical
29. 2021-03-14
    listed $139,000
30. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus $122,500
31. 2020-06-12
    listed $125,000
32. 2010-09-20
    soldstatus $50,000
33. 1998-06-05
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 49 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,608
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600018
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,254
• Composite: 35.23/100
• National rank: #9851
• State rank: #788 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayfork

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #20786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayfork, CA
• City population: 3,413
• Population (ZIP): 3,413

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.83%
• Current HPI: 117.7109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+237.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $98,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $105,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $115,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $210,000 Trinity AOR
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $220,000 Trinity AOR
• 2024-07-15 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $225,000 Trinity AOR
• 2023-12-19 Listed $240,000 Trinity AOR
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) $137,000 Trinity AOR
• 2022-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-03 Listed $145,000 Trinity AOR
• 2021-04-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-03-14 Listed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (MLS) $122,500 Trinity AOR
• 2020-06-12 Listed $125,000 Trinity AOR
• 2010-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,608 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.