165 Hemlock Dr · Effort, PA 18058

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1964 10,454 sqft lot $297/sqft · 24% above area Est $228k · 12% under $44/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

Key facts

• Laundry area
• New water heater
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PROPANE MONITOR HEATING SYSTEM
• KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO DECK
• ELECTRIC BASEBOARDS
• LAUNDRY AREA
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $200k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $154,818 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,599
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -12.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $52,872
• Equity at exit: $128,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $160,901
• Equity at exit: $236,417

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,044/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $178,202

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-66	+0% $-123	+5% $-179	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-184	+0% $-123	+5% $-62	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-72	base $-123	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $199,900 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $210,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

20. 2026-04-10
    listed $215,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

21. 2008-01-03
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 1971-08-09
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$557/yr (+$46/mo · 27.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,044
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1149.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $199,900 PMAR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $210,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $215,000 PMAR
• 2008-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1971-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,044 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.