49133 Manzanita Dr · Homestead Valley, CA 92285

$193,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1957 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy stunning mountain views in Johnson Valley from this four-bedroom, two-bath home situated on five acres of peaceful, private land. The home features a spacious living room with an open floor plan, perfect for entertaining, along with a two-car garage. Experience wide-open space, quiet surroundings, and endless possibilities in this serene desert retreat.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Five acres
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FIVE ACRES
• PEACEFUL PRIVATE LAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Hwy 247, turn south on Gin and west on Manzanita; cross streets Gin and Joshua Tree Road; Short term rental status unknown; Will not consider lease
• Financial info: Sale considered for Cash and FHA; Standard sale; Possession at close of escrow; Property sold As Is
• HOA & community: No monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: No security features
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Detached; Single-story; Ground level entry; Appraiser-sourced year built
• Exterior features: Desert, valley and mountain views; Fee simple land

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Wood fuel heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Propane

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $193k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,608 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.76%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $144,742
• Equity at exit: $174,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $395,172
• Equity at exit: $375,345

Cash invested: $54,096 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92285

• Home prices YoY: 31.4%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,013
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,260/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $193,200

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,300
• Closing costs: $5,796
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $193,200 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,200 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,200 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,200 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $193,200 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $193,200 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $193,200 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $193,200 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $193,200 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,822
• − Property taxes: −$2,260
• − Insurance: −$966
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − Depreciation: −$5,620
• Taxable income: $4,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $6,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Homestead Valley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,914

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 128.05%
• Current HPI: 536.4822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+209.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $193,200 GPSMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $210,000 GPSMLS
• 2002-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,260 · +89.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.