811 Grove St · Lake City, AR 72437

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

$46/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity in Lake City, AR! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your visionwhether you're remodeling to flip or renovating for your next rental. Conveniently located near the city park and baseball fields, this property offers shops, carports, and a nice-sized yard with plenty of potential. Just outside of Jonesboro, it's an easy drive to Paragould or Blytheville, making it a great location for commuters or investors looking to serve multiple markets. Home is being sold as-is and will not qualify for government loans.

Key facts

• City park
• Carports
• Nice-sized yard

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CITY PARK
• BASEBALL FIELDS
• SHOPS
• CARPORTS
• NICE-SIZED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Residential property
• Exterior features: Located in the Craddock & Robe subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.8% vs local median 5.2% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#180 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Riverside School District (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #103 of 238 in AR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside East Elem. School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #305 of 454 statewide, top 71%, 147 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #112 of 292 statewide, top 39%, 331 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.83%
• DSCR: 5.84
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,457
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -69.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 Mead	0.14mi	2/1.0	850 (+12%)	13mo	$115,000	$135	62
507 Maumelle	0.22mi	2/1.0	848 (+12%)	21mo	$85,000	$100	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.72×
• Total profit: $75,611
• Equity at exit: $31,448

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.18×
• Total profit: $178,170
• Equity at exit: $67,730

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72437

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $913	-5% $901	+0% $889	+5% $877	+10% $865
Rent	-10% $776	-5% $832	+0% $889	+5% $945	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $906	-0.5pp $898	base $889	+0.5pp $880	+1.0pp $870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $35,000 Active 541-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $10,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $8,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside School District
• NCES district ID: 0500012
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,959
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6136
• State rank: #103 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #14568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,386

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.97%
• Current HPI: 295.1637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $35,000 NEABOR MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $17 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.