33367 Olympic Cir · Loxley, AL 36551

$539,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 2000 7,535 sqft lot $225/sqft · at area comps Est $561k · at est. $201/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in the prestigious, gated community of Steelwood! This stunning 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence is a must-see, offering timeless elegance, thoughtful design, and breathtaking golf course views. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a large, light-filled living room featuring soaring 23-foot ceilings, walls of windows, and sliding glass doors—creating an ideal space for entertaining while showcasing stunning views of the 5th tee box of the Steelwood Golf Course. The kitchen offers a clean, modern look with white cabinetry, quartz countertops, ample cabinet and counter space, and stainless steel appliances. The water heater and appliances were replaced in 2022. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main level and features a luxurious ensuite bathroom with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and privacy. A half bath on the main level adds convenience for entertaining. Step outside to a magazine-worthy backyard, complete with a huge covered back porch featuring a wood-burning fireplace—perfect for enjoying serene mornings or relaxing evenings. The backyard is enclosed with a new aluminum fence and offers peaceful golf course views. Additional highlights include a NEW 2022 FORTIFIED roof, 2025 outside HVAC system, circular driveway with ample parking, storage/work room off the front porch, and a prime location near the back gate for easy access. Steelwood offers an unparalleled lifestyle with resort-style amenities including a full-size pool, kiddie pool, playground, pavilions, clubhouse, 200-acre lake, chapel, and pickleball courts. Experience the beauty, privacy, and charm that can only be found in Steelwood. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Gated community
• New aluminum fence
• Golf course views

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• LIGHT FILLED LIVING ROOM
• HUGE COVERED BACK PORCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEW ALUMINUM FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $540k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-35/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $539k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $540k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $560,821
• List price: $539,900
• Delta: -3.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33383 Olympic Cir	0.02mi	3/3.5	2,346 (-2%)	12mo	$540,000	$230	86
33198 Augusta Ct	0.29mi	3/3.0	2,342 (-2%)	21mo	$435,000	$186	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-87,713
• Equity at exit: $80,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-76,777
• Equity at exit: $46,681

Cash invested: $151,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,608/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$201
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,504

Max offer price $539,380

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $150	+0% $-3	+5% $-156	+10% $-309
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-181	+0% $-3	+5% $175	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $134	base $-3	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,975
• Closing costs: $16,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32511 Water View Dr E Loxley, AL	3.0	3.0	2063	$4,500	$2.18	15d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $201 · $2,412/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $539,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $539,900 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,900 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,900 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,900 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,900 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $539,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $539,900 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $539,900 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $539,900 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $539,900 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $539,900 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,900 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,900 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,900 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $539,900 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-03-23
    price $539,900 1938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1932 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the prestigious, gated community of Steelwood! This stunning 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence is a must-see, offering timeless elegance, thoughtful design, and breathtaking golf course views. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a large, light-filled living room featuring soaring 23-foot ceilings, walls of windows, and sliding glass doors—creating an ideal space for entertaining while showcasing stunning views of the 5th tee box of the Steelwood Golf Course. The kitchen offers a clean, modern look with white cabinetry, quartz countertops, ample cabinet and counter space, and stainless steel appliances. The water heater and appliances were replaced in 2022. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main level and features a luxurious ensuite bathroom with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and privacy. A half bath on the main level adds convenience for entertaining. Step outside to a magazine-worthy backyard, complete with a huge covered back porch featuring a wood-burning fireplace—perfect for enjoying serene mornings or relaxing evenings. The backyard is enclosed with a new aluminum fence and offers peaceful golf course views. Additional highlights include a NEW 2022 FORTIFIED roof, 2025 outside HVAC system, circular driveway with ample parking, storage/work room off the front porch, and a prime location near the back gate for easy access. Steelwood offers an unparalleled lifestyle with resort-style amenities including a full-size pool, kiddie pool, playground, pavilions, clubhouse, 200-acre lake, chapel, and pickleball courts. Experience the beauty, privacy, and charm that can only be found in Steelwood. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-03-23
    price $539,900 1932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1932 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the prestigious, gated community of Steelwood! This stunning 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence is a must-see, offering timeless elegance, thoughtful design, and breathtaking golf course views. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a large, light-filled living room featuring soaring 23-foot ceilings, walls of windows, and sliding glass doors—creating an ideal space for entertaining while showcasing stunning views of the 5th tee box of the Steelwood Golf Course. The kitchen offers a clean, modern look with white cabinetry, quartz countertops, ample cabinet and counter space, and stainless steel appliances. The water heater and appliances were replaced in 2022. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main level and features a luxurious ensuite bathroom with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and privacy. A half bath on the main level adds convenience for entertaining. Step outside to a magazine-worthy backyard, complete with a huge covered back porch featuring a wood-burning fireplace—perfect for enjoying serene mornings or relaxing evenings. The backyard is enclosed with a new aluminum fence and offers peaceful golf course views. Additional highlights include a NEW 2022 FORTIFIED roof, 2025 outside HVAC system, circular driveway with ample parking, storage/work room off the front porch, and a prime location near the back gate for easy access. Steelwood offers an unparalleled lifestyle with resort-style amenities including a full-size pool, kiddie pool, playground, pavilions, clubhouse, 200-acre lake, chapel, and pickleball courts. Experience the beauty, privacy, and charm that can only be found in Steelwood. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-01-18
    listed $549,900 Active 1938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1938 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the prestigious, gated community of Steelwood! This stunning 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence is a must-see, offering timeless elegance, thoughtful design, and breathtaking golf course views. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a large, light-filled living room featuring soaring 23-foot ceilings, walls of windows, and sliding glass doors—creating an ideal space for entertaining while showcasing stunning views of the 5th tee box of the Steelwood Golf Course. The kitchen offers a clean, modern look with white cabinetry, quartz countertops, ample cabinet and counter space, and stainless steel appliances. The water heater and appliances were replaced in 2022. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main level and features a luxurious ensuite bathroom with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and privacy. A half bath on the main level adds convenience for entertaining. Step outside to a magazine-worthy backyard, complete with a huge covered back porch featuring a wood-burning fireplace—perfect for enjoying serene mornings or relaxing evenings. The backyard is enclosed with a new aluminum fence and offers peaceful golf course views. Additional highlights include a NEW 2022 FORTIFIED roof, 2025 outside HVAC system, circular driveway with ample parking, storage/work room off the front porch, and a prime location near the back gate for easy access. Steelwood offers an unparalleled lifestyle with resort-style amenities including a full-size pool, kiddie pool, playground, pavilions, clubhouse, 200-acre lake, chapel, and pickleball courts. Experience the beauty, privacy, and charm that can only be found in Steelwood. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2026-01-06
    listed $549,900 Active 1932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1932 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the prestigious, gated community of Steelwood! This stunning 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath residence is a must-see, offering timeless elegance, thoughtful design, and breathtaking golf course views. As you enter, you are greeted by a welcoming foyer that opens into a large, light-filled living room featuring soaring 23-foot ceilings, walls of windows, and sliding glass doors—creating an ideal space for entertaining while showcasing stunning views of the 5th tee box of the Steelwood Golf Course. The kitchen offers a clean, modern look with white cabinetry, quartz countertops, ample cabinet and counter space, and stainless steel appliances. The water heater and appliances were replaced in 2022. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the main level and features a luxurious ensuite bathroom with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and garden tub. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and privacy. A half bath on the main level adds convenience for entertaining. Step outside to a magazine-worthy backyard, complete with a huge covered back porch featuring a wood-burning fireplace—perfect for enjoying serene mornings or relaxing evenings. The backyard is enclosed with a new aluminum fence and offers peaceful golf course views. Additional highlights include a NEW 2022 FORTIFIED roof, 2025 outside HVAC system, circular driveway with ample parking, storage/work room off the front porch, and a prime location near the back gate for easy access. Steelwood offers an unparalleled lifestyle with resort-style amenities including a full-size pool, kiddie pool, playground, pavilions, clubhouse, 200-acre lake, chapel, and pickleball courts. Experience the beauty, privacy, and charm that can only be found in Steelwood. Schedule your private showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2024-09-10
    listed $598,900 Active
23. 2023-09-15
    listed $599,900 Active
24. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $215,000
25. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $215,105
26. 2018-08-20
    listed $250,000
27. 2017-09-15
    listed $329,900
28. 2016-04-08
    listed $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,608 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,608
• − Insurance: −$2,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − HOA: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$15,706
• Taxable loss: −$9,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $2,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $539,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $539,900 BCAR
• 2026-01-18 Listed $549,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-06 Listed $549,900 BCAR
• 2024-09-10 Listed $598,900 BCAR
• 2023-09-15 Listed $599,900 BCAR
• 2019-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $215,105 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $215,000 BCAR
• 2018-08-20 Listed $250,000 BCAR
• 2017-09-15 Listed $329,900 BCAR
• 2016-04-08 Listed $315,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,608 · +129.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.