13889 Leitchfield Rd · Big Clifty, KY 42732

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1980 1.06 ac lot Est $248k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home sitting on 1.06 acre with no close neighbors. New carpet in all bedrooms and hallway. New kitchen laminate and fresh paint. Circular gravel drive and 2 car carport. Large covered front porch and back deck.

Key facts

• Hvac 5 years old
• Spacious backyard
• Roof 2018

Tags

• ROOF 2018
• HVAC 5 YEARS OLD
• CONCRETE DRIVE 2 YEARS OLD
• SPACIOUS 1.06 ACRE LOT
• LARGE CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot of approximately 1.06 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Electric range
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-87/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Big Clifty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#516 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $150k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,151 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,148
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13604 Leitchfield Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+7%)	9mo	$267,000	$183	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-24,799
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-22,314
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42732

• Home prices YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $148,721

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $35	+0% $-7	+5% $-50	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-55	+0% $-7	+5% $40	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $31	base $-7	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $150,000
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $135,000 Active
3. 2018-11-02
   soldstatus $95,000 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home sitting on 1.06 acre with no close neighbors. New carpet in all bedrooms and hallway. New kitchen laminate and fresh paint. Circular gravel drive and 2 car carport. Large covered front porch and back deck.

4. 2018-11-02
   soldstatus $95,000

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home sitting on 1.06 acre with no close neighbors. New carpet in all bedrooms and hallway. New kitchen laminate and fresh paint. Circular gravel drive and 2 car carport. Large covered front porch and back deck.

5. 2018-06-15
   listed $109,000 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home sitting on 1.06 acre with no close neighbors. New carpet in all bedrooms and hallway. New kitchen laminate and fresh paint. Circular gravel drive and 2 car carport. Large covered front porch and back deck.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Big Clifty

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #26413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,764

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.46%
• Current HPI: 148.4609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+37.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $150,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $135,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-02 Sold (MLS) $95,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $109,000 HKARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,288 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.