9 Lloret Pl · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$253,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2005 10,018 sqft lot Est $288k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This lovely home in Palm Coast offers a quiet setting with just the right amount of privacy and calm. Image drinking your coffee on the back patio, or unwinding after a long day while the breeze rolls in. Amazing location, 15 minutes to Flagler's beaches for weekend escapes, 5 minutes to major shopping and restaurants for everyday convenience, and close to I-95 for easy commuting or travel. The neighborhood is tucked away, giving you peace of mind without feeling isolated. Whether you're starting fresh or just looking for a change of pace, this property is ready for its next family to settle in and enjoy everything Palm Coast has to offer.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-623/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bunnell Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 1,080 students, 73% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,072 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Llovera Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-6%)	8mo	$268,000	$219	80
25 Derbyshire Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	1mo	$289,990	$229	67
16 Dilly Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	1mo	$304,990	$240	66
23 Dilly Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	0mo	$293,990	$232	65
28 Sandy Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	5mo	$281,590	$222	63
26 Derbyshire Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-2%)	12mo	$295,000	$232	57
1303 Ribbon Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+7%)	14mo	$338,000	$244	48
12 Dilly Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+14%)	4mo	$311,990	$210	45
19 Derbyshire Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+14%)	9mo	$294,990	$199	41
30 Derbyshire Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+14%)	10mo	$313,000	$211	38
22 Derbyshire Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+14%)	14mo	$309,990	$209	35
8 Derbyshire Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+14%)	16mo	$301,990	$204	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-47,956
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,831
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,199/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $244,821

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $20	+0% $-52	+5% $-124	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-126	+0% $-52	+5% $22	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $13	base $-52	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Lloyd Trl Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,525	$1.56	14d	1	0.13mi
21 Llanes Pl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	24d	1	0.20mi
25 Lloshire Path Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,450	$1.48	3d	1	0.23mi
18 Lloleeta Path Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,795	$1.29	3d	1	0.32mi
9 Zorlou Ct Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,525	$1.56	3d	1	0.81mi
5 Llestone Path Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	0.82mi
6 Lleberry Path Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	0.83mi
21 Zorach Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,649	$1.20	14d	1	0.96mi
20 Sabal Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1466	$2,100	$1.43	24d	1	1.11mi
2 Upland Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	1.38mi
92 Karas Trl Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,050	$1.24	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $254,000
2. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-25
   price $253,999
4. 2025-11-05
   listed $257,999 Active
5. 2012-03-21
   soldstatus $95,000
6. 2004-04-28
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,199 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,108 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$909/yr (+$76/mo · 75.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$1,199
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$5,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,231
• After-tax cash flow: $607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2440.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $254,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $253,999 realMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $257,999 realMLS
• 2012-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,199 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.