8807 Goober · Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$69,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 2016 0.36 ac lot $55/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Double level lot backing to trees in Goose Creek Lake development with a 400-acre lake to enjoy water skiing, tubing, jet skis, b oat dock area, fishing and beach area. Public pool, recreation hall. Goose Creek has its own Fir Department. There's a circle driveway, 2 tiny homes on the property, 2 storage sheds with wood floors, 20x12 carport made into an outdoor covered patio area for gilling or just relaxing is 4 years old. Playground stays, everything inside the home stays except a few personal items, the same way with the exterior items. Excluded is the kitchen table, side by side, trampoline and wooded picnic table. Electric hooked up to the homes 200 amp plus extra boxes, shed and carp

Key facts

• Boat dock area
• Double level lot
• Backing to trees

Tags

• DOUBLE LEVEL LOT
• BACKING TO TREES
• 400 ACRE LAKE
• BOAT DOCK AREA
• PUBLIC POOL
• RECREATION HALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($905/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($777 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $863 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8807 Goober	0.00mi	1/1.0	520 (0%)	1mo	$69,900	$134	99
6400 Hoot Owl Ln	0.51mi	1/1.0	540 (+4%)	10mo	$150,000	$278	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $6,959
• Equity at exit: $24,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $26,555
• Equity at exit: $33,524

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63036

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $100	+0% $75	+5% $51	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $45	+0% $75	+5% $106	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $93	base $75	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$745
• − Management: −$745
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable loss: −$180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ste. Genevieve County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2929370
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,013
• Composite: 40.83/100
• National rank: #3632
• State rank: #59 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goose Creek Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goose Creek Lake, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (Ste. Genevieve County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,453 people
• By 2030: 17,119 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 16,361 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 15,719 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 14,849 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 13,504 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ste. Genevieve

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.0) · D 26.9% · R 71.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -59.2pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -45.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.0 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 60.8458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid