21510 Forest Colony Dr · Houston, TX 77365

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2003 6,324 sqft lot $125/sqft · 12% below area Est $254k · 13% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan and tall ceilings. The fully updated interior includes granite countertops and a stone backsplash in the kitchen, along with a soaking tub and separate shower in the primary bath. Major system upgrades feature new water heater (2022), full HVAC replacement (2021), and a new roof (2019). Enjoy the large backyard and new concrete patio (2024), perfect for outdoor entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage and convenient proximity to Valley Ranch Town Center. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer included. Access to the neighborhood swimming pool and park is included. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Soaking tub
• Stone backsplash

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STONE BACKSPLASH
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 11479% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,509 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,159
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -13.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22514 Rustic Valley Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+1%)	0mo	$239,900	$135	86
21554 Forest Colony Dr Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+4%)	1mo	$239,500	$131	82
22594 Stillwater Valley Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+6%)	3mo	$274,900	$147	81
21314 Shadbush Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,818 (+3%)	10mo	$295,000	$162	76
22534 Stillwater Valley Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,804 (+2%)	7mo	$279,000	$155	75
22535 Range Haven Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-8%)	6mo	$269,500	$167	70
21324 Village Crossing Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,810 (+3%)	5mo	$269,900	$149	67
21482 Olympic Forest Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-11%)	6mo	$249,900	$159	66
21399 Forest Colony Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (+13%)	2mo	$229,900	$116	59
21137 American Yellowwood Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,960 (+11%)	5mo	$280,000	$143	59
21300 Village Crossing Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-7%)	9mo	$264,900	$162	56
20724 Baldwin Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-11%)	2mo	$550,000	$349	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,765
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-76,721
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$492 /mo · $5,909/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $176,509

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21538 Forest Colony Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,721	$1.12	5d	1	0.08mi
21507 Cotton Valley Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	44d	1	0.30mi
22344 Montgomery Pines Rd Porter, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$2,002	$2.04	2d	21	1.04mi
21196 South St New Caney, TX	3.0	3.0	1386	$1,795	$1.30	44d	1	1.39mi
22744 Keith Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,650	$1.20	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $220,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $239,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan and tall ceilings. The fully updated interior includes granite countertops and a stone backsplash in the kitchen, along with a soaking tub and separate shower in the primary bath. Major system upgrades feature new water heater (2022), full HVAC replacement (2021), and a new roof (2019). Enjoy the large backyard and new concrete patio (2024), perfect for outdoor entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage and convenient proximity to Valley Ranch Town Center. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer included. Access to the neighborhood swimming pool and park is included. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-05-08
    listed $1,900

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan and tall ceilings. The fully updated interior includes granite countertops and a stone backsplash in the kitchen, along with a soaking tub and separate shower in the primary bath. Major system upgrades feature new water heater (2022), full HVAC replacement (2021), and a new roof (2019). Enjoy the large backyard and new concrete patio (2024), perfect for outdoor entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage and convenient proximity to Valley Ranch Town Center. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer included. Access to the neighborhood swimming pool and park is included. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-15
    price $249,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan and tall ceilings. The fully updated interior includes granite countertops and a stone backsplash in the kitchen, along with a soaking tub and separate shower in the primary bath. Major system upgrades feature new water heater (2022), full HVAC replacement (2021), and a new roof (2019). Enjoy the large backyard and new concrete patio (2024), perfect for outdoor entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage and convenient proximity to Valley Ranch Town Center. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer included. Access to the neighborhood swimming pool and park is included. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $259,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan and tall ceilings. The fully updated interior includes granite countertops and a stone backsplash in the kitchen, along with a soaking tub and separate shower in the primary bath. Major system upgrades feature new water heater (2022), full HVAC replacement (2021), and a new roof (2019). Enjoy the large backyard and new concrete patio (2024), perfect for outdoor entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage and convenient proximity to Valley Ranch Town Center. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer included. Access to the neighborhood swimming pool and park is included. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

19. 2022-04-01
    soldstatus
20. 2019-08-01
    soldstatus
21. 2019-07-30
    soldstatus Sold 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

22. 2019-07-14
    status Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

23. 2019-07-02
    status Option Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

24. 2019-07-02
    status Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

25. 2019-06-20
    status Option Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

26. 2019-06-03
    listed $192,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    A Must See! Beautiful 3 bedroom home with unique features. Spacious open floor plan, tall ceilings, vinyl wood plank flooring, barn door in dining, stone back splash, granite counters, oversized tub in Master Bath with separate shower, custom cedar shelving in Master Closet, storage shelves in all storage areas and garage, wood deck in backyard, beautiful french doors in Formal Dining. So many reason to fall in love with this move in ready home!

27. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2018-08-03
    status Pending
29. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus
30. 2018-07-23
    status Option Pending
31. 2018-07-09
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,909 · $492/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,909 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,909
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-03 Listed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-09 Listed $185,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,909 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.