124 Kansas Dr · Portales, NM 88130

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · Other · 135 Days on market

7,455 sqft lot $110/sqft · 28% below area Est $275k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this home, offering comfort, space, and peace of mind. Located outside of any flood zone, this property provides both security and style. Inside, you'll find a generously sized kitchen perfect for cooking and entertaining, along with spacious bedrooms that offer plenty of room to relax. With numerous upgrades throughout and an open, functional layout, this home is move-in ready and ideal for families or anyone looking for a comfortable living space.

Key facts

• Numerous upgrades
• 7,455 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• NUMEROUS UPGRADES
• OPEN FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,191 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.62%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -27.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,665
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,173
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88130

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,408/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $169,331

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 South Avenue B Unit B Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	43d	1	0.87mi
1802 South Avenue A Unit A Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,150	$0.73	43d	1	0.91mi
1515 S Abilene Ave Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	2462	$1,500	$0.61	43d	1	1.18mi
312 North Avenue B Portales, NM	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    price $199,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Welcome to this home, offering comfort, space, and peace of mind. Located outside of any flood zone, this property provides both security and style. Inside, you'll find a generously sized kitchen perfect for cooking and entertaining, along with spacious bedrooms that offer plenty of room to relax. With numerous upgrades throughout and an open, functional layout, this home is move-in ready and ideal for families or anyone looking for a comfortable living space.

18. 2026-02-04
    listed $200,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Welcome to this home, offering comfort, space, and peace of mind. Located outside of any flood zone, this property provides both security and style. Inside, you'll find a generously sized kitchen perfect for cooking and entertaining, along with spacious bedrooms that offer plenty of room to relax. With numerous upgrades throughout and an open, functional layout, this home is move-in ready and ideal for families or anyone looking for a comfortable living space.

19. 2025-08-12
    price $205,000
20. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus Closed
21. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus
22. 2023-08-09
    historical
23. 2023-07-07
    status Pending
24. 2023-06-23
    listed $169,900 Active
25. 2020-07-27
    soldstatus
26. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus
27. 2019-11-19
    listed $135,000
28. 2017-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,408
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,347
• After-tax cash flow: $-669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portales Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502100
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $36,151
• Composite: 30.52/100
• National rank: #6209
• State rank: #15 of 29 in NM

Livability — Portales

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #13640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portales, NM
• County: Roosevelt County · 17,842 people
• City population: 17,842
• Metro: Portales, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,842
• Household income: $52,434
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,821 people
• By 2030: 15,818 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 13,766 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 12,152 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 8,241 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.72%
• Current HPI: 108.0555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Portales, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+47.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $199,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $200,000 NMMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $205,000 NMMLS
• 2023-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-10 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2023-07-07 Pending — NMMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $169,900 NMMLS
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-19 Listed $135,000 NMMLS
• 2017-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,408 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.