53 Koester St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$168,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1950 4,900 sqft lot Est $178k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

Key facts

• Cazenovia park
• Patio
• 4,900 sq ft lot

Tags

• CAZENOVIA PARK
• TIFFT NATURE PRESERVE
• RECENTLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PATIO
• SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-72/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,551 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Koester St	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	850 (0%)	0mo	$178,000	$209	95
50 Pries Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	955 (+12%)	12mo	$180,000	$188	66
19 Koester St	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (-12%)	13mo	$85,799	$114	61
780 Tifft St	0.28mi	3/1.0	960 (+13%)	5mo	$197,500	$206	61
116 Crystal Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	936 (+10%)	14mo	$230,000	$246	54
39 Ladner Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	898 (+6%)	8mo	$158,000	$176	53
913 Tifft St	0.39mi	3/1.0	971 (+14%)	8mo	$214,000	$220	52
327 Abby St	0.48mi	3/1.0	938 (+10%)	14mo	$215,000	$229	48
31 Ladner Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	840 (-1%)	24mo	$185,517	$221	47
353 Abby St	0.51mi	3/1.5	946 (+11%)	11mo	$230,000	$243	46
83 Oconnor Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	960 (+13%)	23mo	$165,000	$172	39
166 Ladner Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (-15%)	20mo	$128,500	$177	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-21,312
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,395
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $370/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $166,936

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
696 Hopkins St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	44d	1	0.41mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	14d	1	0.42mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	14d	1	0.52mi
100 Athol St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	600	$1,314	$2.19	2d	1	0.90mi
61 Princeton Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,300	$1.59	3d	1	1.02mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	44d	1	1.09mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $168,000 Active
3. 2023-01-11
   soldstatus $126,000
4. 2023-01-09
   soldstatus $126,000 Closed Sale or Rented 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

5. 2022-12-09
   status Pending Sale 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

6. 2022-10-07
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

7. 2022-09-28
   price $130,000 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

8. 2022-09-03
   listed $135,000 Active 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   53 Koester is a Charming home that feels larger than it is, once inside. Located in South Buffalo, you're located close to everything, quick trip to downtown, shopping and great restaurants. Large open room as you first walk in could be used as a living room or formal dining room. To the right is an updated kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. First floor laundry is situated around the corner, where you will also see updated electric panel and hot water tank. There are 2 finished bedrooms with the potential of a 3rd, or use it for home office space. In the rear is a large family room, that may have been addition, potentially making the house larger than the square footage indicates. Outside features a spacious fenced yard with shed. Along the side of the house would look wonderful with bistro tables and strings of lights for ambiance. The front yard has impressive shrubs to create privacy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,235/yr (+$103/mo · 333.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$370
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$3,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+24.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $168,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-09 Sold (MLS) $126,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-10-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-28 Price Changed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-09-03 Listed $135,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $370 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.