3002 Lafayette St · St. Joseph, MO 64507

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1930 6,098 sqft lot $113/sqft · 17% above area Est $145k · 17% over ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an open floor plan, and a grand staircase full of character. The main level features a spacious half bath, kitchen and living room. While upstairs offers three large bedrooms, an updated full bathroom, and a second living space. Situated on a corner lot with a large backyard and a two-story storage shed.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.6% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mark Twain Elem. (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #910 of 1,115 statewide, top 83%, 315 students, 99% FRL); Truman Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #332 of 391 statewide, top 86%, 482 students, 99% FRL); Central High (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,728 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,262
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 16.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,214
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,321
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64507

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $314	+0% $256	+5% $197	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $184	+0% $256	+5% $327	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $299	base $256	+0.5pp $212	+1.0pp $167

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$928
1× unit	1	1	$882
Total (2 units)			$1,810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3128 Midland St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$975	$0.88	46d	1	0.42mi
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	46d	1	0.70mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 605 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1141	$940	$0.82	46d	1	1.45mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 603 St Joseph, MO	2.0	2.0	1176	$910	$0.77	46d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $169,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    price $174,000 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Welcome home! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an open floor plan, and a grand staircase full of character. The main level features a spacious half bath, kitchen and living room. While upstairs offers three large bedrooms, an updated full bathroom, and a second living space. Situated on a corner lot with a large backyard and a two-story storage shed.

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $179,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Welcome home! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an open floor plan, and a grand staircase full of character. The main level features a spacious half bath, kitchen and living room. While upstairs offers three large bedrooms, an updated full bathroom, and a second living space. Situated on a corner lot with a large backyard and a two-story storage shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 14,159

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.49%
• Current HPI: 165.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $174,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $179,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.