20933 E Deer Valley Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 250 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $116k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect investment opportunity. This property has a newer 30 year shingle roof on it and two covered carports that were built with engineer specs. Cute 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a great room floorplan concept - this home is ready for a new name on the mailbox! 230v hookup for tv/camper, great storage unit, large screened in porch for those comfy summer days and winter nights. Large fenced in yard to entertain your best friend. Low utility bills with two newer heat pump mini splits only 3 yrs old. Great quiet neighborhood, not far from fire and police while only less than a mile from Henry Cordes park, a few blocks from community center and conveniently located a mile from I-17. 30 minutes from Prescott and 45 minutes from phoenix. Summers are on an average of 15 degrees cooler than phoenix and still get light snow in winter, beautiful four season community. Also located less than an hour from lake pleasant for boating, fishing sking. Cordes outback located less than a block away for hill climbing, 4x4s, hiking trails and river bottom beautiful for camping and getting away without leaving home.

Key facts

• Two covered carports
• Large fenced in yard
• Built 1990

Tags

• NEWER 30 YEAR SHINGLE ROOF
• TWO COVERED CARPORTS
• 230V HOOKUP FOR TV CAMPER
• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH
• LARGE FENCED IN YARD
• 30 MINUTES FROM PRESCOTT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,032
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16128 S Papago Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0	785 (+0%)	4mo	$83,000	$106	85
20946 E Marble Canyon Way	0.10mi	2/1.0	736 (-6%)	23mo	$135,000	$183	66
20941 E Mesa Verde Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0	844 (+8%)	18mo	$125,000	$148	64
15931 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	799 (+2%)	18mo	$105,000	$131	60
20770 E Zaragoza Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	781 (-0%)	16mo	$125,000	$160	53
20715 E Larry Ln	0.53mi	2/1.5	840 (+7%)	12mo	$130,000	$155	51
20750 E Mingus Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	721 (-8%)	16mo	$95,000	$132	46
16038 S Rodeo Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	673 (-14%)	19mo	$75,000	$111	37
16070 S Indian Bend Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	898 (+14%)	7mo	$150,000	$167	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $98,580
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.60×
• Total profit: $277,093
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $317	+0% $265	+5% $213	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $200	+0% $265	+5% $330	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $303	base $265	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 240 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 239 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    soldstatus Sold 1108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity. This property has a newer 30 year shingle roof on it and two covered carports that were built with engineer specs. Cute 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a great room floorplan concept - this home is ready for a new name on the mailbox! 230v hookup for tv/camper, great storage unit, large screened in porch for those comfy summer days and winter nights. Large fenced in yard to entertain your best friend. Low utility bills with two newer heat pump mini splits only 3 yrs old. Great quiet neighborhood, not far from fire and police while only less than a mile from Henry Cordes park, a few blocks from community center and conveniently located a mile from I-17. 30 minutes from Prescott and 45 minutes from phoenix. Summers are on an average of 15 degrees cooler than phoenix and still get light snow in winter, beautiful four season community. Also located less than an hour from lake pleasant for boating, fishing sking. Cordes outback located less than a block away for hill climbing, 4x4s, hiking trails and river bottom beautiful for camping and getting away without leaving home.

17. 2026-01-15
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 2025-10-07
    listed $150,000 Active 1108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity. This property has a newer 30 year shingle roof on it and two covered carports that were built with engineer specs. Cute 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a great room floorplan concept - this home is ready for a new name on the mailbox! 230v hookup for tv/camper, great storage unit, large screened in porch for those comfy summer days and winter nights. Large fenced in yard to entertain your best friend. Low utility bills with two newer heat pump mini splits only 3 yrs old. Great quiet neighborhood, not far from fire and police while only less than a mile from Henry Cordes park, a few blocks from community center and conveniently located a mile from I-17. 30 minutes from Prescott and 45 minutes from phoenix. Summers are on an average of 15 degrees cooler than phoenix and still get light snow in winter, beautiful four season community. Also located less than an hour from lake pleasant for boating, fishing sking. Cordes outback located less than a block away for hill climbing, 4x4s, hiking trails and river bottom beautiful for camping and getting away without leaving home.

19. 2025-10-07
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity. This property has a newer 30 year shingle roof on it and two covered carports that were built with engineer specs. Cute 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a great room floorplan concept - this home is ready for a new name on the mailbox! 230v hookup for tv/camper, great storage unit, large screened in porch for those comfy summer days and winter nights. Large fenced in yard to entertain your best friend. Low utility bills with two newer heat pump mini splits only 3 yrs old. Great quiet neighborhood, not far from fire and police while only less than a mile from Henry Cordes park, a few blocks from community center and conveniently located a mile from I-17. 30 minutes from Prescott and 45 minutes from phoenix. Summers are on an average of 15 degrees cooler than phoenix and still get light snow in winter, beautiful four season community. Also located less than an hour from lake pleasant for boating, fishing sking. Cordes outback located less than a block away for hill climbing, 4x4s, hiking trails and river bottom beautiful for camping and getting away without leaving home.

20. 2020-08-08
    soldstatus $69,900 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Perfect investment opportunity. This property has a newer 30 year shingle roof on it and two covered carports that were built with engineer specs. Cute 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a great room floorplan concept - this home is ready for a new name on the mailbox!

21. 2020-08-07
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$201
• After-tax cash flow: $2,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+107.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Sold (MLS) — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Listed $150,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-07 Listed $150,000 Fizber.com
• 2020-08-08 Sold (MLS) $69,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $197 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.