4 Oriole Rd · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 2025 $98/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area, designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Private primary bath
• Walk-in closet
• Open family room

Tags

• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $98; CDD fee applies ($64.56)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Fiber cement exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front and rear sprinklers; Community pool (not private); Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Primary bathroom has a shower (no tub)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1379 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,366 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,665
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-59,136
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1379
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$98
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,154

Max offer price $267,194

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $61	+0% $-16	+5% $-92	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-100	+0% $-16	+5% $68	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $53	base $-16	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Oriole Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,400	$1.71	15d	1	0.04mi
8 Oriole Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,400	$1.79	4d	1	0.04mi
746 Town Center Blvd Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,612	$1.38	4d	15	0.58mi
3 Port Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	4d	1	0.84mi
15 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1728	$1,975	$1.14	4d	1	0.85mi
11 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,873	$1.54	24d	1	0.86mi
85 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,675	$1.30	4d	1	1.04mi
65 Pony Express Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,520	$1.22	24d	1	1.07mi
65B Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	22d	1	1.07mi
33 Pinwheel Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	24d	1	1.10mi
29 Pony Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,625	$1.24	4d	1	1.10mi
30 Pony Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,600	$1.34	22d	1	1.10mi
27 Ponderosa Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,500	$1.54	4d	1	1.12mi
57 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,475	$1.51	15d	1	1.13mi
57 Pilgrim Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,049	$1.22	4d	1	1.14mi
53 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	1.16mi
17 Ponderosa Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,575	$1.22	24d	1	1.20mi
100 Wilton Cir Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,430	$2.39	4d	24	1.21mi
43 Ponce Deleon Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,800	$1.39	4d	1	1.25mi
11 Pony Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,680	$1.37	24d	1	1.25mi
10 Pontiac Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	1.26mi
56 Pine Brook Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,895	$1.26	15d	1	1.26mi
101 Brookhaven Ct N Palm Coast, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1178	$1,832	$1.55	4d	10	1.28mi
101 Haven Blvd Palm Coast, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$2,069	$1.86	4d	22	1.32mi
3 Pinwheel Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,100	$1.65	24d	1	1.32mi
402 Tuscan Reserve Dr Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,076	$2.08	4d	10	1.34mi
9 Pony Express Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	24d	1	1.35mi
7 Pony Express Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	24d	1	1.36mi
32 Emerson Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,150	$1.42	4d	1	1.36mi
13 Pilgrim Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$2,060	$1.27	22d	1	1.39mi
14 Empire Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,800	$1.46	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $98 · $1,176/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,990 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $269,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
15. 2026-05-11
    price $259,990
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $269,990 Active
17. 2025-08-25
    soldstatus $2,851,346

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,340/yr (+$112/mo · 148.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − HOA: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$4,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $259,990 realMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $269,990 realMLS
• 2025-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $2,851,346 Public Records