4135 Geoffrey St · North Port, FL 34291

$339,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2025 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Discover this brand-new home, thoughtfully designed for those seeking style, comfort, and peace of mind — with no HOA restrictions. From the moment you step inside, high ceilings and an open layout create a bright, Tile throughout the house, spacious atmosphere that truly feels like home. The kitchen stands out as the heart of the home, featuring stainless steel appliances, tall, modern cabinetry, and high-quality finishes that reflect excellent craftsmanship and attention to detail throughout. Enjoy added security and efficiency with hurricane-impact windows, sliding glass doors, and garage door, along with gutters already installed, offering c

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Gutters installed
• Open layout

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HURRICANE-IMPACT WINDOWS
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• GUTTERS INSTALLED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Living area listed as 1,773 (builder source); total building area 2,296 (builder source)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property, completed; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Other exterior features; Drainage canal on the lot; Asphalt and other road surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Coffered ceilings; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 536 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $340k implies a 2167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,256 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-62,674
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-64,865
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34291

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,509

Max offer price $319,489

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active
3. 2026-04-16
   price $339,990
4. 2026-04-16
   historical
5. 2026-04-15
   listed $339,990 Active
6. 2026-03-25
   historical
7. 2026-01-21
   price $364,900
8. 2025-12-15
   listed $369,900 Active
9. 2024-07-31
   soldstatus $15,000
10. 2022-07-28
    listed $21,000 Active
11. 2015-12-16
    listed $4,900
12. 2015-09-17
    soldstatus $8,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,128/yr (+$177/mo · 306.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$7,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,630
• Household income: $93,425
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 6% French 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 306.4167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3720.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $364,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Listed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Listed $21,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-16 Listed $4,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $8,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $694 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.