526 North St · Hardin, MO 64035

$49,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1918 0.31 ac lot $51/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A fixer upper with much potential in Hardin, MO. Check out the detached garage, backyard privacy, and nice lot setting at the edge of town.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1918

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#258 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hardin-Central C-2 (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #217 of 535 in MO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.95%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,976
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -55.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $61,992
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.11×
• Total profit: $155,173
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64035

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $49,900 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    A fixer upper with much potential in Hardin, MO. Check out the detached garage, backyard privacy, and nice lot setting at the edge of town.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $56,250 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    A fixer upper with much potential in Hardin, MO. Check out the detached garage, backyard privacy, and nice lot setting at the edge of town.

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $62,500 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    A fixer upper with much potential in Hardin, MO. Check out the detached garage, backyard privacy, and nice lot setting at the edge of town.

18. 2026-02-27
    historical $62,500 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    A fixer upper with much potential in Hardin, MO. Check out the detached garage, backyard privacy, and nice lot setting at the edge of town.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $5,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Central C-2
• NCES district ID: 2913680
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,076
• Composite: 39.65/100
• National rank: #8043
• State rank: #217 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #12440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,157

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.23%
• Current HPI: 443.0517
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $49,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $56,250 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $62,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Coming Soon $62,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.