14828 Lovelace St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$361,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 $164/sqft · 22% below area Est $464k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home features a modern, low-maintenance layout, with an open-concept floorplan and inviting covered patio perfect for entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with a convenient flex space near the main living area ready to be used as a studio or home office. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private corner at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Private corner
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX SPACE
• PRIVATE CORNER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14828 Lovelace St, Pilot Point TX 76258
• Financial info: List price $361,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Hendrix plan); Spec inventory, active status
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2210

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Hendrix plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-566 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,987 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,399
• List price: $361,999
• Delta: -22.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14551 Elion Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,192 (-1%)	2mo	$399,940	$182	73
14550 Flossie St	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,140 (-3%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	71
14505 Lovelace St	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+6%)	1mo	$424,000	$182	66
14498 Herschel St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (+1%)	3mo	$444,950	$199	63
5863 Anning Way	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,098 (-5%)	12mo	$445,000	$212	60
14426 Mcclint St	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,103 (-5%)	0mo	$398,000	$189	60
14509 Lovelace St	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,459 (+11%)	3mo	$449,000	$183	56
14498 Lovelace St	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-12%)	5mo	$359,990	$185	52
14422 Mietner	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,449 (+11%)	1mo	$444,960	$182	48
5917 Mayer Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-10%)	6mo	$334,990	$168	42
14438 Mietner St	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-12%)	7mo	$379,990	$195	40
14441 Mietner St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-10%)	5mo	$349,990	$176	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-94,690
• Equity at exit: $53,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-128,747
• Equity at exit: $31,299

Cash invested: $101,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 488
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,898
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,430/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,167

Max offer price $280,055

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,500
• Closing costs: $10,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	13d	1	1.05mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	13d	1	1.14mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	5d	1	1.14mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	4d	1	1.14mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	4d	1	1.15mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	19d	1	1.15mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	44d	1	1.15mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	13d	1	1.15mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	2d	1	1.16mi
16309 Garden Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,450	$1.36	44d	1	1.19mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	24d	1	1.25mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	44d	1	1.25mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	11d	1	1.25mi
5901 Maddie Ann Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2932	$3,895	$1.33	7d	1	1.25mi
16629 Freshwater Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,600	$1.18	24d	1	1.25mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	24d	1	1.27mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	17d	1	1.27mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	17d	1	1.28mi
16625 Hidden Cove Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	24d	1	1.29mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	1.30mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	44d	1	1.34mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	7d	1	1.34mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	19d	1	1.34mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	7d	1	1.34mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	13d	1	1.38mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	1.38mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $361,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $361,999 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $361,999 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $361,999 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $361,999 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $361,999 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $361,999 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $361,999 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $361,999 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $361,999 381-char remark
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $409,999 Active 381-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,278
• − Property taxes: −$5,430
• − Insurance: −$1,810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$10,531
• Taxable loss: −$13,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,205
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B